[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 031436
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AND ROUND
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. AT 12Z...T-NUMBERS
ONLY SUPPORTED 45 KNOTS...BUT SINCE THEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
HAS IMPROVED AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A FEW 50-KNOT WIND
VECTORS. THEREFORE...NITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50
KNOTS. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WARM WATERS FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AWAY FROM THE
UPPER-LOW ...AND STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE MODEST INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTED BY SHIPS AND THE
AGGRESSIVE GFDL WHICH BRINGS MARIA TO 100 KNOTS IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...ABOUT 13
KNOTS...BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
CYCLONE...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PERSISTENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MARIA ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...MARIA SHOULD ALREADY BE APPROACHING THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND HAS CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT MARIA NORTHWESTWARD AND
NORTHWARD.

A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT 12-FOOT SEAS ARE EXTENDING
OUTWARD MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND THE RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 25.1N  53.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N  55.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 28.5N  56.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 30.5N  57.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 32.0N  57.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 34.5N  57.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 36.5N  57.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 38.0N  52.9W    60 KT


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