[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021818
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA HAS DEVELOPED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN...AT 02/1500 UTC NEAR 21.3N 50.0W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1007 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER THE
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. A LITTLE BIT OF
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS OVER MARIA. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOW SEEN FROM 20.5N TO 23N BETWEEN 49W AND 52.5W. THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AGREED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE CENTER. THE QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO SHOWED SEVERAL 35 KT
UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS...THUS HELPING TO UPGRADE THE
DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM. MARIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS
ABOUT 280 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE CENTER OF MARIA.
MARIA WILL HAVE MORE OF A CHANCE TO SURVIVE ONCE THE SHEAR FROM
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER DISAPPEARS. THE LONG RANGE FORECAST IS FOR
MARIA TO GO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

A SURFACE 1010 MB ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 7N36.5W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED. BROAD UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF 13N.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CELLS ARE WEAKENING AND SOME
ARE RE-GENERATING...FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 15W AND 22W...IN
PARTS OF COASTAL AFRICA AND OVER WATERS BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH
OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER SOUTHWEST OF T.S. MARIA REACHES
15N59W...AND A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE EAST OF 70W...EXCEPT
FOR SOME TRADEWIND SHOWERS IN A LINE WITHIN 15 TO 20N NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 13N69W 14N71W 14N73W 14N76W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA NOW...FROM
GUATEMALA SOUTHWARD ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
MEXICO TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 14N17W 14N21W...13N25W 8N34W...7N39W 10N54W 10N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW BLOWS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THANKS TO THE RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. ATLANTIC COAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N78W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CURVES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 27N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N88W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EAST OF EAST OF 86W SOUTH OF 28N...
FROM THE GULF WATERS EASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT STARTS AT A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N59W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 26N67W...TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA 20N82W CYCLONIC
CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CENTER SOUTHWEST OF T.S. MARIA REACHES 15N59W...AND A SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE
EAST OF 70W...EXCEPT FOR SOME TRADEWIND SHOWERS IN A LINE WITHIN
15 TO 20N NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N69W 14N71W 14N73W 14N76W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
AREA IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT STARTS AT A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N59W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 26N67W...TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA 20N82W CYCLONIC
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN
60W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING ITS BASE NEAR 20N35W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF THIS TROUGH. THE TROUGH ENTERS THE
AREA THROUGH 32N34W TO 25N35W TO 20N35W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 33N33W TO 32N38W TO 34N44W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N20W TO 25N32W TO 19N36W.

$$
MT


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