[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 011434
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT THE
CYCLONE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...WE WILL
KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME BASED
PRIMARILY ON A 31-KNOT WIND OBSERVATION FORM THE SHIP ELTZ7 AT 12Z.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS NEAR AN UPPER LOW. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND THE OCEAN IS NOT COOL. THEREFORE...SOME CONVECTION
MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT
IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 3 KNOTS
AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE DEPRESSION.


FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/1500Z 31.9N  51.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 32.3N  51.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 33.5N  52.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 34.5N  52.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 36.1N  52.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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