[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON OCT 31 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 27W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

CARIBBEAN SEA WAVE IS ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS APPROACHING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N71W.  CONVECTION IS NOW W OF THE
WAVE AXIS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 82W-84W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N20W 8N40W 9N50W 8N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 45W-47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TAMPICO MEXICO.
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.  OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF E OF 90W AND S OF 27N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ON RADAR OVER THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A WIND MAXIMA IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO S FLORIDA.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO TRAVEL FROM E TEXAS TO E LOUISIANA IN 24 HOURS WITH
SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER
THE SE GULF TO INCLUDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN ADDITION TO THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES TRAVERSING THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS ALONG 22N78W
19N82W 15N85W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 80W-88W.  FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
LINGERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 60W-63W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
15N71W IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-80W.  THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TOWARDS CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 67W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO E
OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 32N46W 26N60W 24N70W.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.  A WARM FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE BAHAMAS TO
23N77W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS WITHIN 90 NM N
OF THE WARM FRONT.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
28N28W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO 26N50W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS ALONG 22N59W NORTHEASTWARD TO 27N44W TO AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N35W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
60W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORMING IN THE TROPICS
NEAR 9N49W.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net