[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 21N MOVING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 56W-62W. SHOWERS AND CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN SCATTERED OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR THE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS THE WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 12N MOVING WEST 10
KT. CONVECTION REMAINS LIGHT WITH ONLY AN SMALL AREA OF
ISOLATED  MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 81W-82W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N10W 7N20W 7N40W 6N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIONS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN
21W-41W. LITTLE CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SSW TO MEXICO NEAR
17N96W. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FILTERED NORTH
COMPLIMENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 19N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE S OF 25N E OF
88W.  LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON THE KEY WEST RADAR PUSHING
W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF BETA CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NWD BY
THE SUBTROPICAL JET...THERE IS AMPLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN
80W-89W. FURTHER E...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS E CUBA S TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO NEAR 19N82W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 77W-81W. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 19N80W. FURTHER E AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 14N69W...WHICH IS HELPING TO PROVIDE SHEAR OVER THE
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGING EXTENDS E TO NEAR 30N63W FROM A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A SLOW MOVING DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM 30N55W SSW
TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W CONTINUING S INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  BROAD UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED
NEAR 19N49W AND IS PUSHING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WELL N OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG 21N.

$$
JP/PW




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