[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA AT 30/0300 UTC IS NEAR
12.7N 85.3W INLAND. BETA IS MOVING WEST 8 KT.  THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS IS THE LAST
FORECAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 0300
UTC.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

WESTERN ATLANTIC WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 21N JUST EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND CONTINUES TO MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 56W-62W.
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SCATTERED OVER MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE PUSHES INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 12N MOVING WEST 10
KT. CONVECTION REMAINS LIGHT WITH ONLY AN SMALL AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-81W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N30W 7N50W 5N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 25W-41W. LITTLE
CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SSW TO MEXICO NEAR
17N96W. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FILTERED NORTH
COMPLIMENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 18N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF 24N E OF 88W.


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA IS WELL INLAND OVER NICARAGUA MOVING W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA.  MOISTURE FROM BETA CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NWD BY THE
SUBTROPICAL JET...THERE IS AMPLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
83W-85W. FURTHER E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA TO
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO NEAR 19N82W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 78W-81W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 18N80W. FURTHER E AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
NEAR 12N69W...WHICH IS HELPING TO PROVIDE SHEAR OVER THE THE
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGING EXTENDING E FROM A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
AREA FROM 30N57W SSW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N71W
CONTINUING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH IN 90 NM OF THE AXIS.  BROAD UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED
NEAR 23N49W AND IS PUSHING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WELL N OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG 30N. ELSEWHERE
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 8N37W.

$$
JP/PW



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