[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA AT 30/2100 UTC IS NEAR 12.7N
84.4W INLAND OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 100 KM... NORTHWEST OF
BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.  BETA IS MOVING WEST 6 KT. THIS WEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TAKING THE CENTER
MORE INLAND ACROSS NICARAGUA TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BETA MADE LANDFALL AT 30/1200 UTC ALONG
THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF NICARAGUA AT LA BARRA AS
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  SCATTERED MODERATE IS NEAR THE CENTER
FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 84W-85W.  A LARGE FEEDER BAND IS WELL N OF
THE CENTER FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LINE 16N87W 19N86W 20N79W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ON
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N58W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 56W-62W.
LOTS OF RAIN IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS
WHICH ARE JUST WEST OF THIS WAVE IF ALL THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF DURING ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT...
POSSIBLY FROM ST.LUCIA TO ANGUILLA. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE MAY BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N30W 6N40W 6N50W 5N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
30W-36W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN
24W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 35N84W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W.  AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN
93W-98W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM BETA IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA MOVING W. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS PRACTICALLY ALL OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA. THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN GRADUALLY AROUND BETA EVEN
THOUGH THE RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO FALL. RAIN AND MUDSLIDES AND
FLOODING MAY END UP BEING QUITE DANGEROUS AND SEVERE IN HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 20N76W 18N82W.  CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
ABOVE T.S. BETA W OF 75W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N68W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 75W
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
THE CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WELL AS MORE
CONVECTION W OF 80W DUE TO THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVE...THE
REMNANTS OF BETA...AND THE STATIONARY FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER GEORGIA IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM  32N56W TO
E CUBA NEAR 20N76W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.  A 1025
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N36W.  ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG
32N10W 27N15W 25N23W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
SPIRAL AWAY FROM BETA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN
150 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N77W AT THE CUBA COAST...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 27N70W...BEYOND 32N63W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 22N62W NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 33N50W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TO
20N20W.

$$
FORMOSA


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