[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301822
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA AT 30/1800 UTC IS NEAR 12.7N 84.0W
INLAND ABOUT 43 NM/80 KM NORTH OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST 6 KT. THIS WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TAKING THE CENTER MORE INLAND
ACROSS NICARAGUA TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 80 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE BETA MADE LANDFALL AT 30/1200 UTC
ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF NICARAGUA AT
LA BARRA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 83W AND
84W... RIGHT AT THE COAST AND JUST INLAND. BANDS OF RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS NICARAGUA FROM EAST TO
WEST. BANDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS AND PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE IN INLAND SECTIONS OF
HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM JUST SOUTH OF CUBA NEAR 19N76W TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
JAMAICA COAST TO 17N79W. UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES
TO SPIRAL AWAY FROM BETA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT IS NOT DIFFICULT TO FIND AT ALL
ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N ALONG THIS WAVE. CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN
57W AND 62W. LOTS OF RAIN IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS WHICH ARE JUST WEST OF THIS WAVE IF ALL THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF DURING ITS WESTWARD
MOVEMENT...POSSIBLY FROM ST.LUCIA TO ANGUILLA. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE MAY BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N13W 6N30W 6N40W 6N50W 5N55W. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N50W 8N50W
11N51W 16N55W. THIS LINE LEADS UP TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
57W TROPICAL WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
3N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH...IS PUSHING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD...FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ACROSS
SENEGAL AND GAMBIA INTO SOUTHERN MAURITANIA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EASTWARD MORE AND NOW RUNS FROM
ITS BASE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITH
THIS TROUGH IS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO 85W. DRY AIR
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS ALSO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE GULF WATERS INTO INTERIOR MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE BETA HAS MADE LANDFALL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS PRACTICALLY ALL OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE
WIND WILL DIE DOWN GRADUALLY AROUND BETA EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN
MAY CONTINUE TO FALL. RAIN AND MUDSLIDES AND FLOODING MAY END
UP BEING QUITE DANGEROUS AND SEVERE IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 16N MAY BE PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NOW IS NEAR 13N68W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LOW CENTER HAS WORKED ITS WAY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CYCLONIC FLOW ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RUNS FROM 7N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN
PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND
74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE 57W TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO STIR UP STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY WESTWARD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 22N62W NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 33N50W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 24N70W TO
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
20N77W TO 19N82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
SPIRAL AWAY FROM BETA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN
150 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N77W AT THE CUBA COAST...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 27N70W...BEYOND 32N63W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 20N20W. IT IS GIVING
MORE ENERGY TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH
32N12W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N25W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE 22N62W 33N50W RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THIS EASTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AND THE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N11W
BEYOND 32N10W.

$$
MT


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