[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE BETA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.9N 83.5W AT 30/1200 UTC ON
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR LA BARRA MOVING SW AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN
WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BETA IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM IS MAKING LANDFALL. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM
IS FROM 12N-14N W OF 82.5W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA TO 84.5W.
LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 81W-87W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HONDURAS.
THIS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A STORM
SURGE ON THE NICARAGUA COAST WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN...
MUDSLIDES...AND HIGH WINDS WELL INLAND.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 19N WITH A 1010 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12.5N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS
SEEN ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THUS HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
52.5W-60W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 16N MOVING W 10
KT. WAVE IS ENTRAINED INTO HURRICANE BETA WITH A SLOWER SPEED
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO BETA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N TO OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W-77W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 6N27W 6N47W THEN ALONG 13N57W
11N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 1N-10N E OF 45W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES AND THE NW
GULF IS BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS E TEXAS...BUT AS THE
DRY AIR IS ALREADY PRESENT...IT IS HAVING LITTLE EFFECT. THE
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING OFF THE E COAST OF THE UNTIED
STATES AND OUT OF THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC IS LEAVING THE GULF
DRY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
GULF WITH A 1030 MB HIGH OVER N GEORGIA/ALABAMA. A RIDGE EXTENDS
SW ACROSS TEXAS TO NE MEXICO. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE SE GULF STARTING TONIGHT FROM THE MOISTURE OF HURRICANE
BETA  CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER THE E GULF BY MID WEEK. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF BY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE BETA IS MOVING INLAND OVER THE COAST NICARAGUA...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR BETA IS
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OUTFLOW FOR BETA MAINLY TO THE N COVERING
THE W CARIBBEAN TO 79W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO JUST E OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR
19N80W. ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16.5N TO 20N BETWEEN
75W-80W INCLUDING THE SE COAST OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. AN UPPER LOW
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W AND IS CENTERED NEAR 13N68W. THE
UPPER LOW IS DRAWING DRY AIR S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES GIVING THE ISLANDS ISOLATED SHOWERS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVING
INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND WILL REMAIN IN THE
WAKE OF HURRICANE BETA.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE E COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES OVER THE W ATLC WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA E OF BERMUDA ALONG 32N61W SW ALONG 25N69W ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA NEAR 20N76W.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NE WITH THIS FRONT GIVING THE
AREA WITHIN 250/300 NM W OF THE FRONT OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
69W-80W INCLUDING THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM THE TIP OF S FLORIDA
NE TO BEYOND 32N68W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
23N48W COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM 25W-65W GIVING
THE AREA FAIR WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE A 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
NEAR 32N41W WITH A RIDGE ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGHS OF THE THE W AND E ATLC. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E
ATLC IS N OF 22N E OF 25W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N14W SW OVER THE WESTERN MOST CANARY
ISLANDS TO 25N24W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE COLD FRONT FROM CANARY
ISLANDS NORTHWARD.

$$
WALLACE




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