[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE BETA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 83.2W AT 30/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 105 NM S OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER AND ABOUT 50 NM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MOVING WSW
AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAIN WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BETA HAS BECOME A
FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A SMALL EYE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 11.5N-15N W OF
81W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA TO 84.5W. OUTER RAINBAND BAND OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF LINE 17N80W 17N82W INLAND
OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W TO OVER W NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W. BETA
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OVER PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS BETA CONTINUES INLAND. THIS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A STORM SURGE ON THE NICARAGUA COAST WITH
TORRENTIAL RAIN...MUDSLIDES...AND HIGH WINDS WELL INLAND.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 20N WITH A 1011 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE APPEARS TO
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE...THIS WAVE/LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-17.5N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO HURRICANE BETA WITH THE
LOCATE BASED MORE EXTRAPOLATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N TO OVER NW VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 71W-75W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N37W 12N51W 10N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE 3N16W-10N20W...WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM
38W-41W...AND N OF 4N TO INLAND OVER COTE D'IVOIRE ON THE IVORY
COAST BETWEEN 3W-6W. WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 1N-12N BETWEEN 9W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES INTO THE NW
GULF BUT AS THE DRY AIR IS ALREADY PRESENT...IT IS HAVING LITTLE
EFFECT. THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE E COAST
OF THE UNTIED STATES AND OUT OF THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC. THIS
IS LEAVING THE GULF DRY ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ARE
MODERATING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE
GULF FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO OVER
TEXAS. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SE GULF OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FROM THE MOISTURE OF HURRICANE BETA AND A
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE BETA IS ALONG  THE COAST NICARAGUA...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR BETA IS PROVIDING
GENEROUS OUTFLOW COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN TO 73W. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE N OF 17N FROM 74W-84W INCLUDING CUBA AND JAMAICA. AN UPPER
LOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W AND IS CENTERED NEAR 14N67W.
THE UPPER LOS IS DRAWING DRY AIR S TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES GIVING THE ISLANDS ISOLATED SHOWERS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVING
INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND WILL REMAIN IN THE
WAKE OF HURRICANE BETA.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES INTO
THE W ATLC WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA
E OF BERMUDA ALONG 32N63W SW ALONG 26N69W ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA NEAR 21N77W. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BING DRAWN NNE WITH THIS FRONT GIVING THE AREA
WITHIN 250/300 NM W OF THE FRONT OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 24N W OF 70W INCLUDING THE
S BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF
A LINE FROM THE TIP OF S FLORIDA NE TO BEYOND 32N68W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N48W COVERING THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 17N FROM 25W-65W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER. AT THE
SURFACE A 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR
33N42W WITH A RIDGE ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGHS
OF THE THE W AND E ATLC. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS N
OF 24N E OF 25W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING BETWEEN THE MADEIRA
AND CANARY ISLANDS THROUGH 32N15W SW TO 24N28W. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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