[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA AT 28/1800 UTC IS NEAR
13.1N 81.2W OR ABOUT 17 NM/30 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND
OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 43 NM/80 KM NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 165 NM/305 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING NORTH 4 KNOTS. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR PROVIDENCIA
ISLAND LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
993 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO
65 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR BETA TO BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
A HURRICANE WARNING STILL EXISTS FOR THE COLOMBIA ISLANDS OF
SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 11N TO 13.7N BETWEEN 80W AND 82.5W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 13.7N TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF
CUBA BETWEEN 76W AND 84W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF T.S. BETA WITH THE 76W/77W
TROPICAL WAVE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN
43W AND 47W. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REPRESENTATION OF
THIS WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE AND QUITE OBVIOUS.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W
IN AN AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS AND THE
PRECIPITATION SHOW UP QUITE WELL IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE ABSORBED INTO TROPICAL STORM BETA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N15W 9N26W 12N41W...12N46W 12N55W 13N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EAST OF 9N35W-4N28W-THE EQUATOR AT 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
TO TENNESSEE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITH THIS TROUGH IS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
84W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND 96W IN TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...RIGHT UP
AGAINST THE MEXICO COAST...FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 95W AND THE
MEXICO COAST. DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE GULF WATERS ALSO. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG 31N83W
26N87W 22N90W AT 28/1200 UTC. THIS TROUGH WAS NOT AS EVIDENT AT
28/1500 UTC SINCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROBABLY HAS WORKED ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA MORE AND MORE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. BETA IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...EAST OF
NICARAGUA. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR BETA TO BECOME A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE AND MOVE CLOSE TO PROVIDENCIA ISLAND LATER TODAY.
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W...WITH ITS WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
15N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W IN AN AREA OF MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
IS ALONG 76W/77W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABSORBED INTO TROPICAL STORM BETA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N37W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 60W TOWARD
AFRICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 10N57W.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND INLAND SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO AT LEAST 20N AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE
TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N
BETWEEN 52W AND 63W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM I9N52W TO 9N63W.
A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N59W TO 26N70W...
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA
NEAR 20N74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
100 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N80W 28N74W THROUGH 32N66W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CLOUDINESS. A SURFACE 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
30N50W. A DISSIPATING EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 30N11W TO 23N20W TO 20N28W. THIS FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE
MOROCCO. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE MARKS THIS BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

$$
MT


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