[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 81.2W...OR 30 NM ESE
OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND 150 NM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA...AT
28/0900 UTC MOVING N AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO
65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 FOR MORE DETAILS. BETA IS A RELATIVELY SMALL
SYSTEM. BETA HAS MAINTAINED THE INTENSIFY FROM OVERNIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND DEEPEST CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM
CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11.5N-13N BETWEEN
80.5W-81.5W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN AN OUTER BAND
WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 14N79W-14.5N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 78W-84W
INCLUDING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND NE HONDURAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 17N MOVING W 10
KT. BROAD CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 41W-46W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WEAK CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH  SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MORE DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH THAN THE WAVE ITSELF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 17N TO THE
COAST OF S AMERICA FROM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 66W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 18N DRIFTING W
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO T.S. BETA. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM
LAKE MARACAIBO TO THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N27W 14N41W 11N53W 14N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 22W-28W AND AND WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS OF 5N11.5W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 11W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND
REACHES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 21N. A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM W TENNESSEE OVER
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI AND IS INTERACTING WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FURTHER S TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 95W-99W JUST INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND NE
MEXICO. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AT THE LOWER LEVELS OVER
THE E GULF BUT STILL IS DRY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO 23N89W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 83W-90W. MOST OF THE GULF WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER S TEXAS AND NE
MEXICO WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POOLED
AGAINST THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES AND FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE MOISTURE IS MOVING IN
FROM THE CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DISCUSSION ON T.S. BETA. DEEP MOISTURE
COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE DRIER AIR THAT
REMAINS W OF 86W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET E OF THE GULF TROUGH IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA NE ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N72W WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO
ITS SE BRINGING MORE MOISTURE W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BETA...NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 13.5N72W-16N75.5W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W-19N77W INCLUDING THE SW PENINSULA OF HAITI
AND JAMAICA.

W ATLANTIC...
THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM W/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N77W NE
ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N64W AND LIES
PARALLEL TO A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM E CUBA NE
ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N78W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 27N75W TO 32N66W.
A 1016 MB LOW IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE S CAROLINA COAST NEAR
32N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 29N78W TO OFF S
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N80W. HOWEVER...THE DRIER ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH IS PREVENTING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 28N39W WITH ITS CIRCULATION SPANNING N OF 18N WELL INTO THE
N ATLC AND BETWEEN 20W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING W S
OF THE HIGH NEAR 10N57W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF
DRIER AIR WHICH IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS NE FRENCH GUIANA AND N
SURINAME BRUSHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONVERSELY...WEAK
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 56W-60W. FARTHER E...A SHARP
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N11W TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 17N24W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N10W
E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N19W DISSIPATING TO 21N28W.
OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS OVER NORTHERN WESTERN SAHARA AND OVER ALL OF
MOROCCO.

$$
WALLACE



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