[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 81.2W...OR 40 NM SE
OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND 150 NM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA...AT
28/0600 UTC MOVING N AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO
65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 FOR MORE DETAILS. BETA IS A RELATIVELY SMALL
SYSTEM. BETA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W
INCLUDING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE 1008 MB LOW IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. WEAK CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
MEAGER AND DISORGANIZED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE N LEEWARD AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK CURVATURE
IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
MORE DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH THAN THE WAVE ITSELF.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 19N MOVING W
10 KT. WAVE IS APPROACHING T.S. BETA AND LOSING ITS SIGNATURE
CURVATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN...BUT MAY RE-GENERATE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM LAKE MARACAIBO TO THE WAVE
AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 5N14W 10N24W 8N31W 12N41W...
THEN ALONG 7N43W 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 9W-16W...WITHIN 75
NM OF 1.5N FROM 11W-23W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
GUINEA AND GUINEA BISSAU FROM 9N-12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 20W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES AND REACHES WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 20N. A
SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM W
TENNESSEE INTO LOUISIANA AND IS INTERACTING WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER S TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 94W-100W OVERS TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS WETTER THAN YESTERDAY AT THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE
E GULF BUT STILL IS DRY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A DISSIPATING 1017 MB LOW IS IN THE N/CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 27N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 23N88W
PRODUCING LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N TO THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 84W-87W. MOST OF THE GULF WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER S TEXAS
AND NE MEXICO WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POOLED AGAINST THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES AND OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE MOISTURE WILL
BE MOVING IN FROM THE CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DISCUSSION ON T.S. BETA. DEEP MOISTURE
COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE DRIER AIR THAT
REMAINS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA TO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SUBTROPICAL JET E OF THE GULF TROUGH IS
DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA NE ACROSS CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
15N71W WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO ITS SE BRINGING MORE MOISTURE
W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH BETA...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 12N72W NW TO 18N80W INCLUDING THE SW PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THE THE W ATLC
TO OVER CUBA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF
19N FROM HAITI TO OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

WEST ATLANTIC...
THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM W/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W NE
ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N70W AND LIES PARALLEL
TO A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM E CUBA NE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEAR
20N76W TO THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE
THE THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO 31N66W. A 1016 MB LOW IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N79W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING S OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TO THE UPPER KEYS.
HOWEVER...THE DRIER ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER
TROUGH IS PREVENTING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 28N39W WITH ITS CIRCULATION SPANNING N OF 18N WELL INTO THE
N ATLC AND BETWEEN 20W-64W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING W S
OF THE HIGH NEAR 8N55W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF
DRIER AIR WHICH IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS NE FRENCH GUIANA AND N
SURINAME BRUSHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONVERSELY...WEAK
DIFFLUENCE S AND E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM
8N-15N BETWEEN 47W-58W. FARTHER E...A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N15W TO 19N23W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH 32N13W  ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 22N24W DISSIPATING
TO 20N36W. OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS OVER NORTHERN WESTERN SAHARA AND OVER
ALL OVER MOROCCO.

$$
WALLACE


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