[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
BETA AT 27/0900 UTC. T.S. BETA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.4N 81.8W AT
27/0900 UTC MOVING NW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 FOR MORE DETAILS. WARM WATERS
AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR BETA TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12.5N BETWEEN
80W AND THE COAST OF N COSTA RICA/S NICARAGUA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E/CENTRAL ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 16N WITH
A 1008 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N...MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 11N33W 11N37W
TO 9N41W.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG
60W S OF 18N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
12N...MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN UPPER HIGH IS E OF THE WAVE
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/CONVECTION. UPPER WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N57W 11N59W OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO
14N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/100 NM OF LINE 12N71W TO
14N76W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N21W 8N33W 11N37W 8N43W
7N59W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE AXIS FROM 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 15W TO JUST INLAND
OVER AFRICA AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 12N18W-10N21W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N E OF 17W TO BEYOND THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM
3N-11N BETWEEN 17W-39W...AND WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
42W-49W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E UNITED STATES AND
THE GULF WITH AN AXIS ALONG 88W. THIS IS MAINTAINING THE DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR FROM OVER MEXICO AND THE SE U.S. TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVING THE GULF
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE MEXICAN AND S TEXAS COASTS AS
INDICATED BY THE BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 29N W OF 93W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BUILT FROM THE N OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE CONTINUING THE FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A
LINE OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM MOBILE
ALABAMA TO W CUBA. THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND FAIR WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. T.S. BETA
IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH FROM THE GULF COVERS THE THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF
83W. ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC FAR E
CUBA TO W JAMAICA WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARER SKIES NW
OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N82W TO ACROSS HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W.
AN UPPER HIGH NEAR T.S. BETA IS PRODUCING OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY TO
THE N AND E OF THE SYSTEM. DIFFLUENCE AND DEVELOPING OUTER
RAINBANDS OF THE T.S. ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 20N FROM 77W-84W. A
SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 16N74W AND IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
72W. THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIVERSE WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER WET CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI
WITH DRYING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BEGINNING ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S. EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE NW ATLC W OF 77W WITH DRY AIR EXTENDS W OF LINE FROM CUBA
NEAR 23N81W TO BEYOND 32N72W. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS JUST N OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N70W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NNE TO 28N67W.
THIS HIGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OF A STRONG BROAD UPPER
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 30N46W. A SECOND SMALL
EMBEDDED UPPER HIGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N59W
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 60W. THE STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH TO THE W IS BENEATH THIS UPPER FLOW...EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N63W 27N70W ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 21N75W ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN TO 24N71W. BROKEN/
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXTEND NW OF A LINE FROM ACROSS
BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER
BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF
64W. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH A SURFACE
1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N51W. THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IN THE NE ATLC  IS N OF 31N FROM 12W-24W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N17W SW ALONG 25N25W TO
22N38W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N E OF 20W TO JUST
INLAND OVER MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS W
FROM OFF AFRICA NEAR 18N16W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
15N37W TO A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR 8N50W.

$$
WALLACE



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