[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A 1008
MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 10N81W NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY
STATIONARY FRONT.  PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA
AND SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING
BETTER-DEFINED... ALL HALLMARKS OF DEVELOPMENT.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD DRIFT NW WITH LIGHT STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
CENTER FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FURTHER N FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 78W-82W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 15N WITH A
1008 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N...MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A LOW HAS FORMED ON THE WAVE BUT
VERY STRONG WLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SHEAR
IS ALSO ALLOWING PLENTY OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO FORM
NEAR THE WAVE...FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

W ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1008
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N.  IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
THE LOW IS CLOSED AT THE SURFACE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A PRESSURE MINIMUM AS
REPORTED BY A NEARBY BUOY.  UPPER WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SOME OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS HINT THAT SOMETHING COULD TRY TO FORM.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

E CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 66W-70W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N20W 10N30W 7N40W 9N50W
12N60W.  IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 22W-34W...AND FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 38W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATED
THE ENTIRE GULF.  AXIS IS ALONG 90W.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM HAITI TO
JAMAICA TO 13N80W.  COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NW OF THE FRONT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF JAMAICA AND OVER HISPANIOLA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...AND NW
VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 69W-75W.  AS THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL AMERICA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN... FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL ENCOMPASS CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM E HONDURAS SOUTHWARD THRU PANAMA BY TOMORROW.   IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO
14N79W WITH GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER S OF THE TROUGH..
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE.  THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 85W HAS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT FROM WILMA HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY FROM JUST E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W SW INTO THE TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS THEN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.  UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY.. CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 24N.  BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR A SMALL AREA JUST OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA AND FROM ANDROS
ISLANDS NW TO EXTREME S FLORIDA.  OTHERWISE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLC... A LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 30N51W WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N52W.  SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS W OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N20W NNW TO JUST E OF THE AZORES WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N22W TO 26N30W 22N40W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY E OF 31W WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY W OF
31W. UNDERNEATH THE LARGE RIDGE IS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN SAHARA THRU THE CAPE VERDES THEN WSW TO A SMALL
UPPER LOW NEAR 10N40W THEN NW TO 17N51W.  S OF THE TROUGH...
STRONG DIFFLUENT WLY WINDS ARE THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL ATLC
HELPING THE TROPICAL WAVES TO HAVE PLENTY OF CONVECTION.  IN THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC... AN UPPER HIGH IS FORMING NEAR 16N55W
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SHEAR NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES THAN
YESTERDAY.

$$
FORMOSA


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