[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A 1010
MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 9.5N81W NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY
STATIONARY FRONT.  PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA
AND SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING
BETTER-DEFINED... ALL HALLMARKS OF DEVELOPMENT.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD DRIFT NW WITH LIGHT STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 79W-83W S OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 15N WITH
A 1011 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A LOW HAS FORMED ON THE WAVE BUT
VERY STRONG WLY SHEAR SHOULD KEEP IT FROM DEVELOPING.  THIS
SHEAR IS ALSO ALLOWING PLENTY OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
TO FORM NEAR THE WAVE...4N-10N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

W ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.  IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
THE LOW IS CLOSED AT THE SURFACE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A PRESSURE MINIMUM AS
REPORTED BY A NEARBY BUOY.  UPPER WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SOME OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS HINT THAT SOMETHING COULD TRY TO FORM.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 52W-58W.  SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM THE WAVE ARE MOVING THROUGH BARBADOS AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT.  AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON THU.

E CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.  NEARBY
UPPER TROUGH IS AIDING SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO 15N
BETWEEN 67W-71W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N22W 9N33W 8N42W 12N54W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
40W-52W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH CONTINENTAL AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THOUGH
IT IS SLOWLY MODIFYING.  BANDS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN
90 NM OF THE NE MEXICAN COAST OTHERWISE MOSTLY SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF.  THESE SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AS THE COLD-AIR ADVECTION DECREASES OVERNIGHT.
STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA THEN
SW TO NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLANDS.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW REMAINING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN.  DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION FROM NEAR GEORGIA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT.   1023 MB HIGH RIDGES SOUTHWARD THRU THE AREA
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY.  A LITTLE BIT OF A WIND
INCREASE WILL OCCUR IN THE W GULF AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD
AND RETURN FLOW TRIES TO CREEP UP THE TEXAS COST.   THE FRONTAL
ZONE SE OF CUBA WILL SLOWLY BACK UP AS A REMNANT TROUGH WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL CUBA TOMORROW.  AS THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL AMERICA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN... FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL ENCOMPASS CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM E HONDURAS SOUTHWARD THRU PANAMA BY TOMORROW.
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE TO 14N79W WITH GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER S OF THE
TROUGH.. ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 10N-14.5N
BETWEEN 72W-79W.  HEAVY RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE LESSER
ANTILLES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT FROM WILMA HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY FROM JUST E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W SW INTO THE TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS THEN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.  UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY.. CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 24N.  BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR A SMALL AREA JUST OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA AND FROM ANDROS
ISLANDS NW TO EXTREME S FLORIDA.  OTHERWISE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLC... A LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 32N53W WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N52W.  SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS W OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N20W NNW TO JUST E OF THE AZORES WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N24W TO 24N39W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY E OF 31W WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY W OF 31W.
UNDERNEATH THE LARGE RIDGE IS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN SAHARA THRU THE CAPE VERDES THEN WSW TO A SMALL UPPER
LOW NEAR 12N40W THEN NW TO 17N51W.  S OF THE TROUGH... STRONG
DIFFLUENT WLY WINDS ARE THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL ATLC HELPING THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO HAVE PLENTY OF CONVECTION.  IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLC... AN UPPER HIGH IS FORMING NEAR 16N55W WITH MUCH
LIGHTER SHEAR NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES THAN YESTERDAY.

$$
BLAKE

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