[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A 1009
MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 10N81W WHICH IS JUST S OF THE END OF THE
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GULF EARLIER THIS
WEEK. ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT.
COMPUTER MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALBEIT SLOWLY...WITH VERY WARM WATER AND
LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST. A SLOW DRIFT TO THE W OR WNW
IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS S OF 12N FROM 79W-82W TO OVER PANAMA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WELL-DEFINED BUT LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE CLEARLY
RECOGNIZABLE ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. CONVECTION
WITHIN THE ITCZ IS BEING ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE.

W ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. MID/HIGH CURVATURE IS OBSERVED FROM 11N-15N.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE
FROM 12N51W TO 15N56W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 15N MOVING W 10
KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 15N FROM 64W-70W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 11N24W 7N40W 13N53W 12N63W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N
BETWEEN 21W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 39W-45W AND WITHIN 120/150
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO/NW CARIBBEAN/W ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E UNITED STATES...GULF OF
MEXICO...NW CARIBBEAN...AND W ATLC BRINGING COOL NORTHERLY
CONTINENTAL AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS E OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N62W TO 28N66W BECOMING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THEN RETREATING AS A WARM
FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E JAMAICA TO JUST N OF THE 1009
MB LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. SUBTROPICAL JET WITH
WINDS OF 70 TO 90 KT IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NNE OUT OF THE REGION. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SW GULF WITHIN
120/150 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 25N W OF 91W. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE E GULF...W ATLC BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 18N76W ACROSS E CUBA AND HAITI TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS NEAR 23N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LIEN FROM 23N72W TO 30N65W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE/STRONG N SURFACE WINDS ARE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT/MODERATE N SURFACE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...THAT ARE BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE E. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC TO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM E TO W.

REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN...
A 1009 MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED N INTO THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 15N73W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW S OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. DIFFLUENCE AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND CONVERGENCE AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH THE GENEROUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N E OF 76W TO
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
AND SPREAD WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE W ATLC HAS MOVED BENEATH THE W EDGE
OF A BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N58W
WITH TWO RIDGES...ONE EXTENDING NNE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE
SECOND EXTENDING SE TO 18N26W. THIS IS DRAWING A MID LEVEL LOW
CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 22N65W WNW TOWARD BERMUDA.
NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR
THAT COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 30N61W
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N68W TO
15N73W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER E SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 55W IS
PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE THAT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W/56W. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS N OF THE REGION COVERS THE AREA N OF 32N FROM 18W-30W
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE AZORES ALONG
32N28W TO 27N41W. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 27N FROM 18W-30W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA THROUGH 32N10W OVER WESTERN SAHARA/MAURITANIA...TO E OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N20W. AT THE SURFACE...SMALL AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1020 MB CENTERED
NEAR 27N52W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLIES DOMINATE THE TROPICAL
ATLC. AFRICAN DUST HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA COVERING
THE TROPICS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 55W.

$$
WALLACE



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