[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE LAST ADVISORY WRITTEN FOR HURRICANE WILMA WAS AT 25/2100
UTC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH
A 1009 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 10N80W WHICH IS AT THE S END OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GULF EARLIER THIS WEEK.
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALBEIT SLOWLY...WITH VERY WARM WATER AND
LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST. A SLOW DRIFT TO THE W OR WNW
IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 15N W OF 79W TO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WELL-DEFINED BUT LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH THE
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ BEING ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE.

W ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 17N MOVING W 15
KT. MID/HIGH CURVATURE IS OBSERVED NEAR 13N. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 52W-57W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 15N MOVING W 15
KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 14N FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 8N30W 8N40W 13N53W 11N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN
23W-33W...FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 34W-40W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 7N12W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 42W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO/NW CARIBBEAN/W ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E UNITED STATES...GULF OF
MEXICO...NW CARIBBEAN...AND W ATLC BRINGING COOL NORTHERLY
CONTINENTAL AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
BERMUDA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS E JAMAICA TO JUST N OF THE 1009 MB LOW IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN. SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 70 TO 90 KT IS ALONG
THE E SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER THE E GULF...W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THE
NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 93W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N79W ACROSS JAMAICA...E CUBA...AND HAITI TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MODERATE/STRONG N SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA WITH
THE WINDS VEERING TO THE E IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED OVER THE AREA TO THE WEEKEND THEN MOVING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM E TO W.

REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN...
A 1009 MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
LAKE MARACAIBO WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FROM HISPANIOLA TO OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES TO NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND
CONVERGENCE AT THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE GENEROUS AMOUNT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N E OF 75W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND SPREAD WESTWARD BY
THE WEEKEND.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE W ATLC HAS MOVED BENEATH THE W EDGE
OF A BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N60W
WITH TWO RIDGES...ONE EXTENDING NNE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE
SECOND EXTENDING SE TO 26N34W. THIS IS DRAWING A MID LEVEL LOW
CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 21N63W WNW TOWARD THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID LOW DUE
TO THE DRY AIR THAT COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM
26N64W ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N73W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER E SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 54W IS
PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE THAT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W/55W. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS N OF THE REGION N OF 34N FROM 21W-32W WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE AZORES ALONG 32N33W TO 31N28W
AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N36W TO 25N43W. BROAD AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N FROM 21W-33W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA THROUGH THE CANARY
ISLANDS...THE TIP OF OF WESTERN SAHARA/MAURITANIA...TO E OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N21W. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1021 MB CENTERED NEAR
28N54W. MODERATE EASTERLIES DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLC. AFRICAN
DUST CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA.

$$
WALLACE


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