[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 41.7N 62.8W OR ABOUT  205
MILES...330 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AT
25/2100 UTC MOVING NE 46 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO
90 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  WILMA IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL WITH A SPREAD-OUT WIND
FIELD... COLD AIR STREAMING INTO THE CIRCULATION AND FRONTAL
FEATURES NEAR THE CENTER.  TSTMS REMAIN AROUND THE CENTER FOR
ABOUT 100 NM BUT THEY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER COOLER WATER AND EXPERIENCES INCREASING SHEAR.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N77W WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1009 MB.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION WITH BANDING
FEATURES BECOMING MORE PROMINENT.  COMPUTER MODELS UNANIMOUSLY
SUGGEST THE AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY
WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST.  A SLOW DRIFT
TO THE W OR WNW IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W...AND FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 79W-83W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 15N MOVING W 20-25 KT. THE WAVE
IS PRETTY WELL-DEFINED FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH BROAD ROTATION
NOTED ON SATELLITE PICTURES.  STRONG SW SHEAR ALONG WITH
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 23W-33W.

W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE SHOWS STRONG ROTATION IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS BUT HAS
CONSIDERABLY WLY SHEAR INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.  UPPER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW.
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE EFFECTS MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 49W-56W.

E CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 14N MOVING W 20 KT.  THIS IS
A RELATIVELY WEAK WAVE BUT IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-64W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 8N40W 11N50W 11N60W.  IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION DUE TO TROPICAL WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 34W-38W...FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 43W-46W...AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 46W-49W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS 8N-13N BETWEEN 57W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN...
COOL NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.  BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE S OF 28N AND E OF 92W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
COVERS THE W GULF TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N AND W
OF 92W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
VEER TO THE E WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE GULF TO
BE RAIN FREE EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO S NICARAGUA ALONG 20N75W
12N84W MOVING E.  NORTHERLY WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND FAIR
WEATHER ARE NW OF FRONT.  1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
...SEE ABOVE.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN....ALSO
SEE ABOVE.  FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 66W-72W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.  A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA...S OF 14N...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT BEHIND WILMA LIES FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W
TO THE SE BAHAMAS THEN TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT WITH LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT.
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REGION.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N53W.  A SURFACE TROUGH WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N34W 28N40W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION  IS
NEAR 30N60W AND A DEEP TROUGH COVERS THE AREA E OF 30W.  AN
UPPER TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SAHARA TO NEAR THE CAPE
VERDES THEN WNW TO 17N47W.  S OF THE TROUGH... STRONG WLY WINDS
ARE THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL ATLC HELPING THE TROPICAL WAVES TO
HAVE PLENTY OF CONVECTION.  IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC... AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM NEAR DOMINICA TO 21N57W AND IS
HELPING TO INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
52W.

$$
FORMOSA


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