[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251028
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 34.8N 70.0W OR ABOUT 270 NM E
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AT 25/0900 UTC MOVING NE AT 46
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WILMA IS NOW A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE
RAPIDLY ON THE E SIDE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING
COLD AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-37N BETWEEN
65W-72W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 3N32W-10N28W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
11N-16N BETWEEN 43W-52W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 57W
S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE ITCZ ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE FROM 55W-60W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND NO LONGER
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 11N25W THEN ALONG 7N30W
12N50W THEN ALONG 9N58W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 24W-28W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 4N
FROM 22W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E UNITED STATES INTO THE
GULF TO ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS
ALSO FORCING HURRICANE WILMA NE OUT OF THE REGION...LEAVING THE
GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OFF MEXICO S OF 25N W OF 91W INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS. STRONG
NORTH WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS DROPPING INTO THE 50'S DEG F WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 30'S AND 40'S OVER ALL OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE AREA OF W CUBA
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA NEAR
21N77W W OF JAMAICA TO NEAR 17N82W THEN DISSIPATING INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N ACROSS CUBA FROM 75W-80W. RIDGE FROM
BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE
NE TIP ON NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
NW VENEZUELA NEAR 9N69W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 13N FROM
65W-73W. DIFFLUENCE AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND TYPICAL EASTERLY
TRADEWINDS MERGE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 15N W OF 72W
TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WILMA IS MOVING RAPIDLY NE OFF THE CAROLINAS COASTS TO THE E OF
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E UNITED STATES AND GULF OF
MEXICO AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N74W ALONG 25N75W INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N77W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE FAR W ATLC DRY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
30N68W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE E OF
WILMA IS A BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 28N62W COVERING THE
ATLC W OF 42W. OVER THE E ATLC...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
AREA N OF 15N E OF 42W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N16W SW TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR
26N31W THEN W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N54W TO 16N61W. AFRICAN
DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA S OF A LINE FROM JUST S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 20N30W TO NEAR 16N44W. CONVECTION OVER THE
ATLC IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net