[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA AT 24/2100 UTC IS NEAR 29.0N 77.4W
OR ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM... NORTH OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...MOVING NORTHEAST 32 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.  EYE DIAMETER IS 50 NM.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-34N BETWEEN 73W-79W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA AT 24/2100 UTC IS NEAR
29.0N 70.0W...OR ABOUT 385 NM SW OF BERMUDA.  ALPHA IS MOVING
NORTH NORTHEAST 29 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALPHA
IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED
BY THE CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 69W-71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
52W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS ALONG 88W
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE INLAND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 85W-89W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 9N30W 8N40W 11N50W.  IN ADDITION
TO CONVECTION DUE TO TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE NORTHERLY SINCE WILMA MOVER E
OVER THE W ATLANTIC.  WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL 25-30 KT ALONG THE
FLORIDA COAST E OF 85W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO W CUBA ALONG 27N82W 22N83W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...S OF 28N.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE FROM THE NW TO W...WHILE
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE FROM THE S...ALL DUE TO
WILMA.  THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W HAS THE TYPICAL EASTERLY
TRADEWINDS.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO AN AREA N OF PANAMA WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 78W-80W.  NW
VENEZUELA ALSO HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 71W-73W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER N
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 75W. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WILMA IS RACING NE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND WILL SOON ABSORB
ALPHA.  A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N54W.  ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
27N30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE TROPICS NEAR 17N52W PRODUCING SHEAR OVER ONE OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES ALONG 54W.

$$
FORMOSA


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