[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241823
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA AT 24/1800 UTC IS NEAR 27.3N 79.2W
OR ABOUT 56 NM NORTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA...MOVING
NORTHEAST 22 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
956 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 105 KT...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. REMAINING NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WILMA GO FROM 25N TO 27N
BETWEEN 77W AND 81W FROM THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. OTHER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 32N BETWEEN 76W
AND 80W IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA AT 24/1500 UTC IS NEAR
25.9N 72.2W...OR ABOUT 295 NM NORTH OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT 547 NM SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. ALPHA IS
MOVING NORTH 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALPHA
IS MOVING NORTH AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS. ALPHA IS FORECAST TO BE
ABSORBED BY THE CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN 24 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA
OF ALPHA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO 31N
BETWEEN 66W AND 73W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 42W
AND 47W.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 16N50W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS BLOWING RIGHT OVER THE
TOP OF THIS WAVE. THE 16N50W LOW CENTER IS CONNECTED TO A LOW
CENTER NEAR 11N65W BY A TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM ONE LOW TO
13N55W TO THE 11N65W LOW CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS WITHIN 200 TO 300 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 50W...AND
WITHIN 300 TO 400 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH WEST OF 50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NICARAGUA AND CENTRAL
HONDURAS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS FROM
COASTAL NICARAGUA TO COASTAL GUATEMALA PROBABLY ARE MORE RELATED
TO THE ITCZ THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N17W 12N21W...7N24W 7N36W...6N42W 4N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 7N
BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 21W AND 27W...
AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND 64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN
40W AND 47W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 15N EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CENTER OF WILMA HAS EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO COMPLETELY.
STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE RACING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS AND MEXICO. DENSER MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...NOW
SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 93W. REMAINING NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WILMA GO FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W
FROM THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 32N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE FAST-RUSHING COLD FRONT...WHICH FOLLOWED
THE FIRST FRONT...HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE ALONG 31N79W 29N83W
27N86W 23N90W 22N97W 24N102W. THE FIRST FRONT BECAME STATIONARY
ALONG 31N78W 29N81W 25N85W...A COLD FRONT FROM 25N85W TO THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W...AND DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FROM 20N88W TO 19N93W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHING
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...THROUGH 31N100W
26N99W 24N96W 22N95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER NEAR 16N50W TO 13N55W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 11N65W
TO 11N72W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ORIGINATING FROM
THE FLOW AWAY FROM HURRICANE WILMA...CURVES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA. SOME OF THIS
FLOW CONTINUES AROUND TO THE 11N72W BASE OF THE ATLANTIC-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE REST OF THE FLOW STAYS TO THE NORTH
AND CREATES UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 82W...JUST WEST OF THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM HURRICANE
WILMA...GOING ALL THE WAY NORTH TO 44N66W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO
30N38W...AND CURVING AGAIN SOUTHWESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA. A TROUGH
RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
NEAR 16N50W TO 13N55W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 11N65W TO
11N72W.

$$
MT


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