[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 25.1N 82.7W...OR ABOUT 60 NM
WNW OF KEY WEST AND 85 NM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA...AT 24/0600 UTC
MOVING NE 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT...
MAKING WILMA A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. WILMA HAS A LARGE MOSTLY CLEAR EYE...MEASURED FROM
KEY WEST RADAR TO HAVE AN AVERAGE DIAMETER OF ABOUT 55 NM. DEEP
CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -84C HAS ALMOST
WRAPPED AROUND THE ENTIRE CENTER...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL BREAK IN
THE INTENSITY WITHIN THE ERN EYEWALL. THE HEAVIEST CORE
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER AND IS NOW BRUSHING
THE LOWER KEYS...AND IS ONLY ABOUT 25 NM OFF THE SW FLORIDA
COAST. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM W
CUBA NWD INTO N FLORIDA BETWEEN 80W-85W. HEAVY RAINS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN AFFECTING MUCH OF N/CNTRL FLORIDA AS WILMA
INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT NOW THE FIRST SPIRAL
BANDS ARE ROTATING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY UP TO A
LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND AROUND
SUNRISE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.5N 72.9W...OR
ABOUT 85 NM N OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AT 24/0300
UTC MOVING N 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CIRCULATION OF ALPHA
WAS ADVERSELY DISRUPTED BY ITS TREK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA ON SUN...BUT SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN ABLE TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF. A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH THE DEPRESSION...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 70W-75W. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE AFFECTING SAN SALVADOR...SAMANA CAY...CROOKED ISLAND...AND
MAYAGUANA IN THE BAHAMAS BUT THEY SHOULD LIFT N OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALPHA WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME
ABSORBED BY THE CIRCULATION OF WILMA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W/37W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS MORE OR LESS ALIGNED E/W ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W/50W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE WAVE HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER SIGNATURE THAN THE WAVE
TO THE E BUT IT IS STILL LOW IN AMPLITUDE AND REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION LIES S OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND ORIENTED ALONG THE ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W S OF
15N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WHICH ULTIMATELY FEEDS INTO THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE
WILMA FAR TO THE N. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER FAR NE NICARAGUA/E HONDURAS FROM
13.5N-15.5N BETWEEN 82W-86W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COSTA RICAN
COAST.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N23W 10N36W 10N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL AND
GUINEA-BISSAU FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 13W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 22W-34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 36W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
37W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE WILMA HAS INTENSIFIED TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS OVER THE SE
GULF AND IS ACCELERATING TO THE NE...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE VICINITY OF NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA AROUND
SUNRISE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS WRAPPED AROUND THE NW SIDE OF
WILMA EXTENDING FROM ORLANDO FLORIDA SW THROUGH TAMPA TO
25N87W...THEN SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SEPARATES THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA (WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F) FROM DRIER
AIR OVER THE N/W GULF WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S
F. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING OFF THE LOUISIANA
AND TEXAS COAST AND IS BEGINNING TO DRAW DOWN EVEN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S F. THIS CHANGE IN
AIR MASS IS BEING FORCED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING
OVER THE NW GULF...AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SURGING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM INDIANA TO OKLAHOMA MOVING
TOWARDS THE N GULF COAST. THE COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
FILTER IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF REGION AND FLORIDA BEHIND
WILMA...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING RECORD LOW TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW
MORNINGS.

CARIBBEAN...
ONLY A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE BRUSHING ACROSS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NOW THAT WILMA IS
LIFTING NE TOWARDS FLORIDA. THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THE CNTRL PART BETWEEN 66W-74W EXTENDING
S OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION LIES TO
THE S INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND NRN COLOMBIA FROM 4N-13N
BETWEEN 70W-77W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DOMINATED BY DEEP
EASTERLIES STRETCHING FROM THE ATLC WWD TO 79W...WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO ADVECT DRIER AIR OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS DRIER AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS.

ATLANTIC...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED NE OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N67W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E CUBA NEWD TO
28N44W IN THE CNTRL ATLC. EXTENSIVE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM WILMA
STRETCHES ACROSS FLORIDA TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE HIGH. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA IS
BEING PUSHED NWD ON THE W SIDE OF THIS SAME HIGH. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA NEWD TO 32N75W AND IS
CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS N/CNTRL FLORIDA NWD TO
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE...WELL AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA. FARTHER E...AN ELONGATED UPPER
TROUGH LIES FROM 22N40W SW TO 12N53W THEN TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...AND SEPARATES DRY AIR MOVING WWD TOWARDS THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM MOIST AIR COVERING THE TROPICAL AREAS OF THE
E/CNTRL ATLC. A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 36W N
OF 28N AND IS TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N
OF 30N BETWEEN 31W-44W. THIS TROUGH IS APPROACHING ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WHICH HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NE ATLC FROM
THE MOROCCO/ALGERIA BORDER SW TO 20N30W. A 50-60 KT SUBTROPICAL
JET AT 200 MB LIES ON THE S SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS INTO MAURITANIA AND MALI.

$$
BERG


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