[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 240400
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-241030-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1159 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION
UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS
UPDATED PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
UPDATED LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS
UPDATED LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING
NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN A TIME WINDOW CENTERED AROUND 7 AM
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MARCO ISLAND AND CHOKOLOSKEE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA
IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...AND WILMA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL
AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS WILMA CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME THE CENTER REACHES
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...AND RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA HAS
REMAINED CONSTANT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 5 TO 10 HOURS REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE EVENTUAL
TRACK ENDS UP BEING.

SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS AND NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE. PLEASE STAY
ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN
COLLIER COUNTY IN A WINDOW CENTERED AROUND 7 AM EDT. IN THAT SAME TIME WINDOW
AND SHORTLY AFTER...A STORM TIDE OF UP TO 13 TO 18 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF CAPE ROMANO TO
CAPE SABLE INCLUDING EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE
FLOODING OF LOCAL ACCESS ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE
INCLUDING STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL
U.S. HIGHWAY 41. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST...A STORM TIDE OF
7 TO 9 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED FROM JUST SOUTH OF NAPLES TO MARCO ISLAND AND WILL
LIKELY CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MARCO ISLAND. THESE VALUES ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK WHICH CAN STILL CHANGE BY AS MUCH AS 30 MILES NORTH
OR SOUTH. THEREFORE...IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO EVACUATE.

A STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FLAMINGO AREA MID MORNING MONDAY.

ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...PARTICULARLY BISCAYNE BAY...
A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CANALS AND WATERWAYS. SOUTH
WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME
FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME
FROM EARLY TO MID MORNING MONDAY. OVER BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
COASTS...STORM TIDES OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED FROM EARLY MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY OVER AREAS INSIDE THE DIKE
FROM LAKEPORT TO CLEWISTON...WITH 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS
ELSEWHERE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE SOUTH TO LAKEPORT...AND FROM CLEWISTON THROUGH
PORT MAYACA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE
PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME ACCESS ROADS.
THE LAKE LEVEL ON SUNDAY WAS 15.6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE 11 PM FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39
MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
FLORIDA BEFORE DAWN.

SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER
THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY
COASTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EASTWARD TO PALM BEACH...
BROWARD...AND MIAMI DADE THROUGH SUNRISE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SUBSIDING BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
BE SUBSIDING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AREAS NEAR AND WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...WHERE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF
UP TO 115 MPH COULD BE SUSTAINED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE EXTENSIVE WIND DAMAGE...
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS WITH WALL AND ROOF FAILURES...EXTENSIVE TO
COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES...NUMEROUS LARGE TRESS AND SIGNS BLOWN
DOWN...MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE DUE TO LARGE DEBRIS...AND WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES.

OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO
LIKELY. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES WILL LIKELY BE UPROOTED
WHICH WOULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO
WALK AROUND TO WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE
STORM...THERE IS AN 80 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH
MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...RANGES FROM BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM NAPLES SOUTHWARD...TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...AND TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SURF ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VERY ROUGH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE
COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING
INTO THE LAKE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING
AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND MID TO LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND NORTHERN WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
SUBSIDING OVER ALL ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED PREPARATIONS AT THIS TIME AND ALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AT THIS TIME.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH...WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. RAIN BANDS MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES WILL BE THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF WILMA. TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO
PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO
THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
RAPIDLY AND WITH LITTLE WARNING...ESPECIALLY THOSE INDUCED FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONES. PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK PROTECTIVE ACTION IF A TORNADO IS SIGHTED OR A TORNADO
WARNING IS ISSUED.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3 AM.

$$

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