[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTBW 240350
HLSTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-240630-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1130 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WHILE MOVING
TOWARD SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE WILMA IS SLOWLY GAINING SOME STRENGTH. LATEST
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATED THAT WILMA IS NOW A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE WEST COAST AS A STRONG CATEGORY 2.

A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
FROM CITRUS COUNTY SOUTHWARD UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY. THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS FROM
WILMA REACH THE AREA. ANY TORNADOES WILL BE FAST MOVING.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL
SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL
LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND
SARASOTA COUNTIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL
SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO
CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR
NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER AND LEVY COUNTIES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 196 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS AND 260 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA.
WILMA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.

...WIND IMPACTS...
DANGEROUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN
LEE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTY.

WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD. THE
LATEST TRACK WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ONSHORE IN LEE AND
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS IN SQUALLS BY 4 AM.  A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 TO 80 MPH...IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM.  BECAUSE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST HIGH CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH WHILE ACCELERATING INLAND...GUSTS
TO 100 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SQUALLS.

FARTHER NORTH IN THE HURRICANE AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE
GUSTS SHOULD ARRIVE BY 4 AM...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS...50 TO 65 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 75 TO 85 MPH...BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM...PERHAPS UP TO 11
AM IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY.

IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND POINTS NORTH THROUGH HERNANDO COUNTY...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND OR SOON
AFTER 5 AM...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS...40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
65 MPH...EXPECTED BETWEEN 7 AM AND 12 PM.

IMPACTS FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY INCLUDE:

POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED. OTHERS WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS...
AND WINDOWS...AND WILL LIKELY BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND
ROOF FAILURE...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS.  MOST LANAI SCREENS AND
POOL CAGES WILL HAVE DAMAGE...SOME WILL BE DESTROYED. UNSECURED LIGHT
TO MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND PERHAPS INJURY.  MANY AREAS WILL HAVE POWER
OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES WILL FALL...TRANSFORMERS WILL POP...AND
SOME POWER POLES WILL BE PULLED DOWN.

ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND.  NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP...AND
MODERATE DAMAGE IS EXPECTED IN CITRUS ORCHARDS.  UP TO ONE HALF
OF NEWLY PLANTED CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

IMPACTS FOR SARASOTA...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...AND HARDEE COUNTY
INCLUDE:

OLDER MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES
...SIDING...AND GUTTERS.  SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.  MANY
LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL BE DAMAGED.  UNFASTENED HOME
ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY.  DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE
BLOWN DOWN.  LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.

MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND ROTTING
SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.  DOZENS OF PALM FRONDS
WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO CITRUS GROVES
AND NEWLY PLANTED LOWLAND CROPS.

IMPACTS FOR THE TAMPA BAY AND LAKELAND AREAS INCLUDE:

MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES.  POORLY CONSTRUCTED
HOMES MAY RECEIVE SOME WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL.  A
FEW HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING.  A
FEW POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS WILL BE DAMAGED.  UNSECURED LIGHT
WEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE.
SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES
ARE LIKELY.

MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED.
SOME ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE
BRANCHES WILL SNAP.  NUMEROUS SMALL TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES.
A FEW PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN.

...SURGE IMPACTS...
TIDES CONTINUE RUNNING AROUND A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING
POINTS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY.

HOWEVER...AS WILMA APPROACHES...TIDES SHOULD RISE AHEAD OF THE
ARRIVAL...INCLUDING LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.
THUS...TIDAL DEPARTURES MAY RANGE UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...AND UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL ELSEWHERE...BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY
AND EVACUATE WATER FROM MANY OF THESE AREAS.

TIDES MAY RISE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEST FACING
BEACHES OF LEE COUNTY...INCLUDING BONITA BEACH...FORT MYERS
BEACH...AND THE NORTH END OF SANIBEL AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PINE
ISLAND.  STORM TIDES COULD REACH 4 FEET OR HIGHER...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE RUN UP...OVERWASH...OR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

PLEASE NOTE THAT ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WILL GREATLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR MINOR TO MODERATE STORM SURGE FLOODING IN
LEE COUNTY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE
WITH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HURRICANE WILMA OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 INCH IN LEVY COUNTY...
2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES IN HEAVIER BANDS FROM TAMPA TO
LAKELAND AND POINTS NORTH...3 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY...AND 4 TO 5 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY 6 INCHES IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANATEE RIVER LATE
MONDAY...AND ON THE PEACE AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS BY MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...NEXT STATEMENT...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 215 AM
EDT SUNDAY.

$$

AR

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