[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WILMA AT 23/1800 UTC IS
NEAR 23.5N 84.9W OR ABOUT 210 NM/340 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY
WEST FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 295 NM/475 KM SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILMA IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
959 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO
110 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 22N-26N
BETWEEN 83W-87W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN
82W-88W.  LANDFALL IS EXPECTED OVER SW FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA AT 23/2100 UTC IS NEAR 20.6N 72.9W OR
ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA
ISLAND.  ALPHA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 72W-74W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EAST ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 35W-42W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 15 KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 78W-82W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N20W 10N40W 10N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
20W-25W...AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 26W-33W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WILMA DOMINATES THE E GULF OF MEXICO.  W CUBA IS EXPERIENCING
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FROM THE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  S
FLORIDA IS BEING THREATEN NEXT WITH THE ADDITION OF A 12 FT
STORM SURGE.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 28N80W 26N87W 23N90W 18N93W.  NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.  THE W GULF W OF 90W HAS
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS E OF 89W DUE TO WILMA...WHILE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 89W.  A 80-100 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER
THE N GULF ENHANCING OUTFLOW N OF WILMA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W.  THE NOAA BUOY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...WELL S OF WILMA...REPORTS 30 KT WINDS FROM THE SW
AND 13 FT SEAS.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 68W-74W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION LINGERS
NEAR PUERTO RICO FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 66W-69W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
83W-86W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 80W.  AS WILMA PULLS AWAY...EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO BE BETWEEN 70W-90W IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA ALONG 32N74W 28N80W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N DUE TO A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N17W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM WILMA
SHOOTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EVENTUALLY CURVES TO
30N43W...BEFORE HOOKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GOING TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 16N45W PRODUCING SHEAR OVER
A TROPICAL WAVE.  ANOTHER TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN N OF 20N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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