[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 232236
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-240430-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
630 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION
UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS
UPDATED PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
UPDATED LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS
UPDATED LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS
UPDATED LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR
CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWEST COAST EARLY MONDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN BEGIN AFFECTING THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA HAS REMAINED CONSTANT THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS REGARDLESS OF THE WHAT THE EVENTUAL TRACK ENDS UP BEING.

SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD RUSH THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS NOW. PLEASE STAY ABREAST
OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN COLLIER COUNTY. A STORM
SURGE OF 13 TO 17 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF CAPE ROMANO TO CAPE SABLE
INCLUDING EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE. A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 18 FEET
IS EXPECTED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE
FLOODING OF LOCAL ACCESS ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE
INCLUDING STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL
U.S. HIGHWAY 41. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST...A STORM SURGE OF
6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM JUST SOUTH OF NAPLES TO MARCO
ISLAND. THESE VALUES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK WHICH CAN
STILL CHANGE BY AS MUCH AS 30 MILES. THEREFORE...IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR LOCATION IS
POSSIBLY PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
EVACUATE.

A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLAMINGO
AREA MID MORNING MONDAY.

ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...PARTICULARLY BISCAYNE BAY...
A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CANALS AND WATERWAYS. SOUTH
WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME
FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME
FROM EARLY TO MID MORNING MONDAY. OVER BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
COASTS...STORM TIDES OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED FROM EARLY MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY OVER AREAS INSIDE THE DIKE
FROM LAKEPORT TO CLEWISTON...WITH 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS
ELSEWHERE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE SOUTH TO LAKEPORT...AND FROM CLEWISTON THROUGH
PORT MAYACA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE
PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME ACCESS ROADS.
THE LAKE LEVEL ON SATURDAY WAS 15.58 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39
MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER COLLIER COUNTY THIS EVENING...REACHING MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN HOURS.

SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER
THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY
COASTS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AROUND DAWN MONDAY...AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH METRO
AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...GENERALLY A FEW HOURS. THE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
NOON. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN MOST AREAS DURING
THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON...AND IN METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

MAJOR WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES...WITH DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIAL...DOORS...AND WINDOWS OF
BUILDINGS. SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO MOBILE
HOMES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO
LIKELY. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES WILL LIKELY BE UPROOTED
WHICH WOULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO
WALK AROUND TO WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE
STORM...THERE IS AN 80 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH
MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...RANGES FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM NAPLES SOUTHWARD...35 TO 45 PERCENT ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF
A BONITA BEACH TO CLEWISTON TO JUPITER LINE...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRIMARILY
OVER GLADES COUNTY.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH THIS EVENING...BECOMING VERY ROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES
THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING
INTO THE LAKE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING
AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND
MIDDAY AND NORTHERN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
SUBSIDING OVER ALL ATLANTIC WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL
COASTS. BE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH...WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. RAIN BANDS MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES WILL BE THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF WILMA. TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO
PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO
THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. THE RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH
WILMA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND WITH LITTLE
WARNING...ESPECIALLY THOSE INDUCED FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES. PLEASE MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK PROTECTIVE
ACTION IF A TORNADO IS SIGHTED OR A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

MOLLEDA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net