[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTBW 232115
HLSTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-240030-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
515 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...HURRICANE WILMA GRADUALLY ACCELERATING TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND ON TRACK FOR A MORNING LANDFALL...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL ROTATION
COMBINES WITH THE APPROACH OF FEEDER BANDS.  A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM CITRUS COUNTY SOUTHWARD
UNTIL 1 AM.  THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE AFTER 6 PM IN MOST AREAS...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY METRO AREA TO LAKELAND AND POINTS
SOUTH. ANY TORNADOES WILL BE FAST MOVING...BUT COULD CONTAIN WIND
GUSTS IN THE F-1 RANGE...73 TO 112 MPH.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL
SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL
LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND
SARASOTA COUNTIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL
SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO
CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR
NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER AND LEVY COUNTIES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS AND 345 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA.
WILMA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 11 MPH...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WILL BEGIN LATER THIS EVENING.

...WIND IMPACTS...

DANGEROUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
LEE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTY

WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD...AND
BETWEEN 11 PM AND 2 AM SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. THE LATEST TRACK
WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ONSHORE IN LEE AND CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS IN SQUALLS BY 3 AM.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 TO 80 MPH...IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM.  BECAUSE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT
LEAST HIGH CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH WHILE ACCELERATING INLAND...GUSTS TO
100 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SQUALLS.

FARTHER NORTH IN THE HURRICANE AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE
GUSTS SHOULD ARRIVE BY 4 AM...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS...50 TO 65 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 75 TO 85 MPH...BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM...PERHAPS UP TO 11
AM IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY.

IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND POINTS NORTH THROUGH HERNANDO COUNTY...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND OR SOON
AFTER 5 AM...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS...40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
65 MPH...EXPECTED BETWEEN 7 AND 11 AM.

IMPACTS FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY INCLUDE:

POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES WILL BE
HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. OTHERS WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WALLS...AND WINDOWS...AND WILL LIKELY BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED.  HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE PARTIAL
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS.  MOST LANAI
SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL HAVE DAMAGE...SOME WILL BE DESTROYED.
UNSECURED LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME
PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND PERHAPS INJURY.  MANY
AREAS WILL HAVE POWER OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES WILL FALL...
TRANSFORMERS WILL POP...AND SOME POWER POLES WILL BE PULLED DOWN.

ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND.  NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP...AND
MODERATE DAMAGE IS EXPECTED IN CITRUS ORCHARDS.  UP TO ONE HALF
OF NEWLY PLANTED CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

IMPACTS FOR SARASOTA...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...AND HARDEE COUNTY
INCLUDE:

OLDER MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES
...SIDING...AND GUTTERS.  SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.  MANY
LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL BE DAMAGED.  UNFASTENED HOME
ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY.  DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE
BLOWN DOWN.  LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.

MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND ROTTING
SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.  DOZENS OF PALM FRONDS
WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO CITRUS ORCHARDS
AND NEWLY PLANTED LOWLAND CROPS.

IMPACTS FOR THE TAMPA BAY AND LAKELAND AREAS INCLUDE:

MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES.  POORLY CONSTRUCTED
HOMES MAY RECEIVE SOME WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL.  A
FEW HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING.  A
FEW POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS WILL BE DAMAGED.  UNSECURED LIGHT
WEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE.
SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES
ARE LIKELY.

MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED.
SOME ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE
BRANCHES WILL SNAP.  NUMEROUS SMALL TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES.
A FEW PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN.

...SURGE IMPACTS...
TIDES CONTINUE RUNNING AROUND A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING
POINTS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRACK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY.

HOWEVER...AS WILMA APPROACHES...TIDES SHOULD RISE AHEAD OF THE
ARRIVAL...INCLUDING LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.
THUS...TIDAL DEPARTURES MAY RANGE UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...AND UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL ELSEWHERE...BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY
AND EVACUATE WATER FROM MANY OF THESE AREAS.

TIDES MAY RISE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEST FACING
BEACHES OF LEE COUNTY...INCLUDING BONITA BEACH...FORT MYERS
BEACH...AND THE NORTH END OF SANIBEL AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PINE
ISLAND.  STORM TIDES COULD REACH 4 FEET OR HIGHER...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE RUN UP...OVERWASH...OR MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

PLEASE NOTE THAT ANY SLIGHT SHIFT UP THE COAST WILL GREATLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR MINOR TO MODERATE STORM SURGE FLOODING IN
LEE COUNTY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HURRICANE WILMA GETS CLOSER
TO THE REGION. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HURRICANE WILMA OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 INCH IN LEVY COUNTY...1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN HEAVIER BANDS FROM TAMPA TO LAKELAND
AND POINTS NORTH...2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 6
INCHES IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT.

AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANATEE RIVER LATE
MONDAY...AND ON THE PEACE AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS BY MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...NEXT STATEMENT...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 815 PM EDT
THIS EVENING.

$$

GOLDSMITH

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