[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT75 KNHC 232042
SPFAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  72.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

26.0N  73.5W      43  5  X  X 48   MYMM 224N 730W    80  X  X  X 80
31.5N  71.0W       X 20  X  X 20   MYSM 241N 745W    53  X  X  X 53
MTPP 186N 724W    43  X  X  X 43   MYEG 235N 758W    28  X  X  X 28
MUGM 200N 751W     4  X  X  X  4   MYAK 241N 776W     2  1  X  X  3
MBJT 215N 712W    18  X  X  X 18   MYNN 251N 775W     3  1  X  X  4

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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