[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTBW 231830
HLSTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-232130-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL
SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL
SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO
CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL
LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND
SARASOTA COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR
NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER AND LEVY COUNTIES.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND 325 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. WILMA
WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE
FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE
COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A
GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA.

...SURGE IMPACTS...
TIDES ARE RUNNING AROUND A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT GAGING POINTS
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL VARY GREATLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF WILMA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE
GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE IS SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. LEE AND
PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND SOME
TIDAL FLOODING EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA APPROACHES. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE
COUNTY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE AN OUTGOING TIDE WHICH MAY
EXPOSE SANDBARS AND OTHER FEATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLETS...BAYS...
AND HARBORS.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HURRICANE WILMA GETS CLOSER
TO THE REGION. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HURRICANE WILMA OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...BUT 3 TO 5 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS CHARLOTTE...LEE...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.

AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE MANATEE RIVER LATE
MONDAY...AND ON THE PEACE AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS BY MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


...MARINE IMPACTS...
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST
WHICH WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...35 TO 60 KNOTS...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS.  THE THREAT FOR
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...ABOVE 64 KNOTS...IS GREATEST SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS NOT EXPECTED WELL NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY
AREA. HOWEVER INCREASING WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH GOOD ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTH...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES OR MARINE WATERSPOUTS
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE GREATEST WIND SHEAR WILL RESIDE.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

OLDER MOBILE HOMES IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE
MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE
UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
MAY HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS.  SOME WINDOWS
WILL BE BLOWN OUT.  MANY LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL BE
DAMAGED. UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL
BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY.
DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN.  LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT
ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.

MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND ROTTING
SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.  DOZENS OF PALM FRONDS
WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO CITRUS ORCHARDS
AND NEWLY PLANTED LOWLAND CROPS.

...NEXT STATEMENT...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 5 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MCMICHAEL

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