[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 231622
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-232300-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1222 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA...
...RAIN BANDS WILL START TO AFFECT GULF WATERS...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION
UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION
UPDATED SURGE INFORMATION
UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS
UPDATED WIND EFFECTS
UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING
AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT
APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH FLORIDIANS
SHOULD RUSH THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO COMPLETION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO
ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. A TOTAL OF 9 SHELTERS ARE
OPEN. ADDITIONAL EVACUATION ORDERS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY AS THE FORECAST FOR
WILMA BECOMES MORE CLEAR. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF
COLLIER COUNTY.

IN HENDRY COUNTY...COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS STRONGLY URGE A
VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD
PRONE AREAS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM TODAY.

IN GLADES COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOMES AND LOW LYING AREAS IS
IN EFFECT. THREE REGULAR SHELTERS AND A SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER WILL OPEN AT NOON
TODAY.

IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT
NOON TODAY. SHELTERS ARE OPEN. COUNTY GOVERNMENT OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY
AND THE COUNTY URGES BUSINESSES IN BROWARD TO CLOSE FOR THE SAFETY OF THEIR
EMPLOYEES. A BRIDGE LOCKDOWN WILL OCCUR AT 5 PM EDT.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUB-STANDARD
HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL BEGIN
AT 1 PM EDT TODAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS ARE OPEN. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL
OPEN AT 1 PM EDT.

IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND
PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
RESIDENTS THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES. THERE IS ALSO A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION
FOR RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT FEEL SAFE IN THEIR HOMES OR LIVE IN LOW-LYING
AREAS. THREE EVACUATION SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON TODAY...AS WELL TWO SPECIAL
NEEDS SHELTERS AND A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER. BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN COLLIER COUNTY. A MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 14 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL MID MORNING MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL
ACCESS ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING
STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL U.S.
HIGHWAY 41. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF LARGE PARTS OF NAPLES ESPECIALLY WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL AND MARCO ISLAND IS EXPECTED. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT
CONCENTRATE ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER BECAUSE THE ERROR INHERENT 24
HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL CAN BE AS MUCH AS 70 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WHICH
INCLUDES ALL OF COLLIER COUNTY AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR
LOCATION IS POSSIBLY PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE BEST ACTION IS TO
EVACUATE.

A STORM TIDE AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID MORNING
MONDAY IN THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS OF EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF
6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLAMINGO AREA MID
MORNING MONDAY AND UP TO 10 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
WEST SIDE OF CAPE SABLE.

ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INCLUDING MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES...A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED MID
MORNING MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CANALS AND WATERWAYS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME
FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME FROM
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST SHOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM TIDE OF 18 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHICH
WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS...IS EXPECTED WITH WILMA FROM MID
MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE WILL BE OCCURRING FROM THE
MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK EAST TO BELLE GLADE AND SOUTH BAY INCLUDING CLEWISTON
AND MOORE HAVEN...THEN ALSO ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE UP TO PAHOKEE AND PORT
MAYACA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE
PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME ACCESS ROADS.
THE LAKE LEVEL ON SATURDAY WAS 15.58 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39
MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER COLLIER COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING
THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...GREATER
THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION NEAR DAWN AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH METRO AREAS
BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...GENERALLY A FEW HOURS. THE
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND IN METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY.

MAJOR WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES...WITH DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIAL...DOORS...AND WINDOWS OF
BUILDINGS...WITH SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF
UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO LIKELY.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY
CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA.

PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO
WALK AROUND TO WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND
SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 75 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...
THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCES THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 58 MPH RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 PERCENT AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 55 TO
65 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...TO AS HIGH AS 75 PERCENT ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE
HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 PERCENT
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM EVERGLADES CITY SOUTHWARD...20 TO 35 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF A BONITA BEACH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO JUPITER LINE...AND 15TO
20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...OUTER BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA WILL AFFECT THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ROUGH SEAS...AND WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE BANDS AS THEY MOVE NORTH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 13 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REACH
HURRICANE FORCE...64 KNOTS...IN THE GULF WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SURF
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING VERY ROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING
INTO THE LAKE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING
AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING MID MORNING
MONDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS WILMA RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.

MARINERS SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION FOR THE PROTECTION OF MARINE
CRAFT ON ALL COASTS. BE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED
STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS COLLIER COUNTY...PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...
PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO
THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES WILL BE THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF WILMA. THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NOON.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM.

$$

MOLLEDA

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