[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT75 KNHC 231437
SPFAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  72.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

24.0N  74.0W      51  7  X  X 58   MBJT 215N 712W     7  X  X  X  7
29.0N  73.5W       X 31  X  X 31   MYMM 224N 730W    62  X  X  X 62
MDCB 176N 714W    36  X  X  X 36   MYSM 241N 745W    49  8  X  X 57
MTPP 186N 724W    99  X  X  X 99   MYEG 235N 758W    33  7  X  X 40
MTCA 183N 738W    19  X  X  X 19   MYAK 241N 776W     1  3  X  X  4
MUGM 200N 751W    38  X  X  X 38   MYNN 251N 775W     1  5  X  X  6

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM MON TO  8PM MON
C FROM  8PM MON TO  8AM TUE
D FROM  8AM TUE TO  8AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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