[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 230637
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-231030-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION AND STORM SURGE SECTIONS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI DADE...GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES.
WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

ALL LOCAL IMPACTS DEPICTED BELOW IN THIS STATEMENT ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDANT ON THE FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...TIMING..AND INTENSITY IN
WILMA'S FORECAST. ANY DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST COULD ALTER THE
DEPICTED LOCAL IMPACTS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY TUNED AS
THIS STATEMENT IS UPDATED EVERY 3 TO 6 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING
SUNDAY EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA PARTICULARLY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE
INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS IN
THIS CASE. RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO PUT
THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO PLACE NOT LATER THAN EARLY ON SUNDAY.
PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH
FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.

IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41
INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF
NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT
TODAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT TODAY. A VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY.

IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS
AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED.
SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM TODAY.

IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING THIS EVENING. A
DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE TODAY.

IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS
WILL BEGIN AT NOON TODAY. SIX SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON ALONG
WITH A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN
SUBSTANDARD HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND
RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL COMMENCE AT 1 PM EDT TODAY. SPECIAL
NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL
OPEN AT 1 PM EDT.

IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND
PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS
ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE EARLY TODAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL STORM
TIDE OF 9 TO 12 FEET...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY COASTS...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH THROUGH FLAMINGO...ASSUMING
THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL OR APPROACHES THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
2 EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS
EXPECTED AROUND 4 TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN FLOODING OF AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. OVER LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE. ON THE EAST COAST...STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE TIDE
LEVEL IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY IF THE CENTER
OF WILMA MOVES AS FORECAST.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS MAY START AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST
DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MONDAY MORNING HOURS...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND AND
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY
MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM WINDS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED.
SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER
LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND
SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 50 TO
65 PERCENT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 FEET
OFFSHORE...AND WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE LATE
TONIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ROUGH TODAY...BECOMING VERY ROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE
HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING LATE MONDAY
MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY OFF THE PALM
BEACH AND BROWARD COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AROUND MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD START PROTECTING MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS
ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
TODAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT
THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN
FUTURE UPDATES.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY
WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL
PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA
PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES THROUGH TODAY WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER TODAY...AND
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE STATE AND RAIN BANDS
BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

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