[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 230411
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-231030-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1200 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY...PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WARNINGS...STORM INFORMATION...AND LOCAL IMPACT SECTIONS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR  3 MPH... 6 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

ALL LOCAL IMPACTS DEPICTED BELOW IN THIS STATEMENT ARE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...TIMING..AND INTENSITY IN WILMA'S FORECAST. ANY DEVIATION
FROM THE FORECAST COULD ALTER THE DEPICTED LOCAL IMPACTS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS
SHOULD STAY TUNED AS THIS STATEMENT IS UPDATED EVERY 3 TO 6 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING
AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA PARTICULARLY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF
WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN
THIS CASE. RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO PUT THEIR
PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO PLACE NOT LATER THAN EARLY ON SUNDAY. PLEASE STAY
ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO
ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION
SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. A
VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY.

IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS
OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM
SUNDAY.

IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING SUNDAY EVENING. A DECISION ON THE
EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE ON SUNDAY.

IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT
NOON SUNDAY. SIX SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY
SHELTER.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUBSTANDARD HOUSING...
LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL COMMENCE AT 1 PM
EDT SUNDAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT SUNDAY. REGULAR
SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY.

IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY
EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON EVACUATION
RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE EARLY SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE
SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...SIZE AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL STORM TIDE OF 9 TO 12 FEET IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS...FROM BONITA
BEACH SOUTH THROUGH FLAMINGO...ASSUMING THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL OR
APPROACHES THE COAST AS A CATEGORY 2 EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED AROUND 4 TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. OVER LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE.
ON THE EAST COAST...STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES AS FORECAST.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY START AFFECTING THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MONDAY MORNING HOURS...
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATE MORNING MORNING WITH TROPICAL
STORM WINDS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...
AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE
DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE
STORM...THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH
MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 58 MPH IS FROM 50 TO 65 PERCENT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS
16 FEET OFFSHORE...AND WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ON
SUNDAY...BECOMING VERY ROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
SHOULD START SUBSIDING LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY OFF THE PALM BEACH AND BROWARD
COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AROUND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY
NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS
ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT
THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN
FURTHER UPDATES.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING
WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13
TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THIS
THREAT INCREASING LATER SUNDAY...AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM
APPROACHES THE STATE AND RAIN BANDS BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

PS

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