[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA AT 22/2100 UTC IS NEAR 21.4N 87.1W
... ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM NORTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR
ABOUT 405 MILES... 650 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
WILMA IS MOVING NORTH AT 2 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 957 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT...NOW MAKING
WILMA A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  WILMA IS IN THE PROCESS OF LEAVING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  HIGH WINDS AND CONVECTION REMAIN OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...W CUBA...AND THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-26N BETWEEN 82W-89W.

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA AT 22/1800 UTC IS NEAR 17.0N 68.9W OR
ABOUT  210 MILES... 335 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWEST
13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
67W-71W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SE OF THE CENTER FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 64W-67W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
74W-76W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N30W 8N50W 10N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-20W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE WILMA DOMINATES THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.  SEE ABOVE.  A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N84W
26N90W 25N98W MOVING SE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 90W
WHILE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS E OF 90W. DUE TO WILMA.  EXPECT
WILMA TO MOVE TOWARDS S FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
...INTENSIFYING IN STRENGTH OVER THE GULF WATERS ON THE WAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NOAA BUOY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W PRESENTLY HAS 30
KT WINDS FROM THE S...AND 15 FT WAVE HEIGHTS.  THE AREA NW OF
THE BUOY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WILMA.  THE TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING CONVECTION S OF 12N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA  WITH
HEAVIER CONVECTION OVER INLAND N COLOMBIA.  FURTHER E... T.S.
ALPHA IS THREATENING HISPANIOLA...AND IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
THE ISLAND AND CONTINUE TO THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AWAY FROM HURRICANE WILMA
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W...AND IT
SPILLS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF THE AREA OF T.S.
ALPHA.  A GRADUAL SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 26N62W 29N54W BEYOND 32N47W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RUNS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 6N57W TO 11N59W AND THEN TO 16N59W. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STREAM INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 7N TO
20N BETWEEN 35W AND 59W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 22N40W...SURROUNDED BY MUCH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR. A SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N28W.

$$
FORMOSA


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