[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 222201
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-230500-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
601 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...HEADLINE...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY...PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WATCHES AND SHELTER UPDATE FOR BROWARD COUNTY.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AN INLAND
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE
87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD AT
2 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON
SCALE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO
ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION
SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. A
VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY.

IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS
OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM
SUNDAY.

IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING SUNDAY EVENING. A DECISION ON THE
EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY.

IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT
NOON SUNDAY. SIX SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY
SHELTER.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUBSTANDARD HOUSING...
LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL COMMENCE AT 1 PM
EDT SUNDAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT SUNDAY. REGULAR
SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY.

IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY
EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON EVACUATION
RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY.

HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS
THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO
PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO PLACE IF THE WATCHES ARE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
ON SUNDAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH
FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE
SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...SIZE AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 12 FEET IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
FLOODING OF AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A
STORM SURGE OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE. ON THE EAST
COAST...STORM SURGES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES AS FORECAST.

...WIND IMPACTS...
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE WIND IMPACT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...SIZE...AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING...THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
MAY START AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
MONDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER
LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE
STORM...THERE IS A 65 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH
MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 58 MPH IS FROM 35 TO 50 PERCENT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE MARINE IMPACT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...SIZE AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 FEET...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ROUGH ON SUNDAY...BECOMING VERY ROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE
COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MARINERS
SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY
OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES. A FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE
FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN FURTHER UPDATES.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING
WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13
TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS THREAT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY...AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE
STATE.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

MOLLEDA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net