[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Oct 22 15:58:38 CDT 2005
WTNT75 KNHC 222058
SPFAT5
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.8N 71.8W 57 X X X 57 MYMM 224N 730W 21 20 X X 41
23.6N 71.9W 5 33 4 X 42 MYSM 241N 745W X 19 5 X 24
28.5N 70.5W X X 27 3 30 MYEG 235N 758W X 5 1 X 6
MDSD 185N 697W 86 X X X 86 BERMUDA X X X 20 20
MDCB 176N 714W 43 X X X 43 NANTUCKET MA X X X 3 3
MTPP 186N 724W 36 1 X X 37 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2
MTCA 183N 738W 3 1 X X 4 YARMOUTH NS X X X 2 2
MUGM 200N 751W 1 2 X X 3 HALIFAX NS X X X 2 2
MDPP 198N 707W 69 X X X 69 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2
MBJT 215N 712W 44 3 X X 47
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
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