[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 222053
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

A 1500Z TRMM COMPOSITE PASS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 16.3N 67.9W WITH A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BANDING FEATURE.
THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM ALL
THREE AGENCIES WERE 2.0/2.0...AND MOREOVER THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVED SINCE THAT TIME. AT 18Z...A SHIP REPORT FROM
C6FN4 HAD A 22 KNOT SOUTHWEST WIND ABOUT 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER WITH A 1007 MB PRESSURE. BASED UPON THE ABOVE INFORMATION
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ALPHA. ALPHA IS THE
TWENTY-SECOND NAMED STORM THIS SEASON AND OVERALL MAKES THE 2005
HURRICANE SEASON THE MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/13. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE STORM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LAYER RIDGE. ALPHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN
RECURVE TO THE NORTHE AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA AND
THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALPHA BEING
ABSORBED BY THE TROUGH IN 96 HOURS IF NOT SOONER.

ALPHA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. AFTER
WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOME BRIEF RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHWEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA.


FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/2100Z 17.0N  68.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 18.3N  70.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 20.8N  71.8W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 23.6N  71.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 28.5N  70.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 38.0N  61.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z...ABSORBED


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