[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221844
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA AT 22/1800 UTC IS NEAR 21.2N 87.0W
JUST WEST OF CANCUN MEXICO...OR ABOUT 348 NM SOUTHWEST OF KEY
WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD ERRATICALLY...AND A
CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND THEN EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 953 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY TO 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT...NOW MAKING WILMA A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
19N TO 23N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTH OF 23N. AN OFFSHORE ISLAND
JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CALLED ISLA MUJERES HAS
REPORTED A 24-HOUR RAIN TOTAL OF 64 INCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FIVE DEVELOPED AT 22/1800 UTC NEAR
16.2N 68.8W...OR ABOUT 204 NM/380 KM SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO...AND ABOUT 152 NM/280 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 13.5N TO 16N BETWEEN
65W AND 68W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 15.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. THIS BIG AREA
OF RAIN EASILY MAY AFFECT PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND HAITI IF IT DOES NOTHING BUT DRIFT NORTHWARD.
THIS EASILY MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES. IT APPEARS
THAT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH WAS IN VENEZUELA
24 HOURS AGO...AND WHICH HAS MOVED WESTWARD AND NOW IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N78W JUST OFF THE PANAMA
COAST...IS NOT GOING TO IMPACT THIS FEATURE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED BENEATH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS HELPING IT NOT TO BE TOO WELL DEFINED.
ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE WAVE FROM
7N TO 13N BETWEEN 33W AND 43W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N13W 7N20W 9N30W 9N39W...9N42W 4N50W 3N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 7W AND 19W INCLUDING OVER AFRICA...
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
47W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AWAY FROM HURRICANE WILMA...
LINES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF WILMA
ARE SPIRALING IN A CYCLONIC SENSE TOWARD WILMA'S CENTER AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. DENSE MULTILAYERED OVERCAST CLOUDINESS COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-AND EAST OF 30N86W 28N90W
24N92W 19N91W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF THIS
LINE. THIS DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTER IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. ALL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING WILMA WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
TODAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST PLACES THE
EYE OF WILMA SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST
DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 27N90W TO THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS COAST JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AWAY FROM HURRICANE WILMA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25 DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING. THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA NOW AND EASILY MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS
IF AND WHEN IT MOVES NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW
IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. IT APPEARS THAT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
WHICH WAS IN VENEZUELA 24 HOURS AGO...AND WHICH HAS MOVED
WESTWARD AND NOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
10N78W JUST OFF THE PANAMA COAST...IS NOT GOING TO IMPACT
THIS FEATURE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AWAY FROM HURRICANE WILMA
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W...AND IT
SPILLS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF THE AREA OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25. A GRADUAL SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 26N62W 29N54W BEYOND 32N47W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N57W TO 11N59W AND THEN TO 16N59W.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STREAM INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 59W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N40W...SURROUNDED BY MUCH MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. A SURFACE 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 33N28W.

$$
MT



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