[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 221831
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-222200-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED TIME OF STORM INFORMATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...HEADLINE...
...HURRICANE WILMA STILL OVER THE YUCATAN AND DRIFTING ERRATICALLY
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY...PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION AND EVACUATION AND SHELTER UPDATES FOR
COLLIER AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS YET IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ALL OF FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA
IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD AND A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING WILMA A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41
INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF
NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION
IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY.

IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS
AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED.
SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM SUNDAY.

IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING SUNDAY EVENING. A
DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY
OR SUNDAY.

IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS
WILL BEGIN AT NOON SUNDAY. A MINIMUM OF THREE SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT
NOON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUBSTANDARD
HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES
WILL COMMENCE AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT
10 AM EDT SUNDAY. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY.

IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND
PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON
EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND
EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THIS
STAGE...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE
A WEATHER WATCH AND STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM
THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER PREPAREDNESS PLANS
AND RESTOCK PROVISIONS SUCH AS...

     BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS
     DRINKING WATER...A GALLON PER PERSON PER DAY
     CANNED OR DRIED FOOD
     FIRST AID SUPPLIES
     PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE
     CASH...BECAUSE CREDIT CARDS AND ATM'S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER
     FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.

WHEN HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...THAT WILL BE THE TIME
TO RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE
IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND IN LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
WHAT THE WIND IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...
WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND
SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 60 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS
FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH...IS
FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
WHAT THE MARINE IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...
MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL
COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED LATER THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN FURTHER UPDATES.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...
PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR
TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORM STRUCTURE AND TRACK AS IT APPROACHES THE
PENINSULA.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM TODAY.

$$

PFOST/MOLLEDA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net