[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221228
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 87.0W...OR ABOUT 9 NM
SW OF CANCUN MEXICO...AT 22/1200 UTC AND NEARLY STATIONARY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135
KT...NOW MAKING WILMA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WILMA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 6 HRS AND IS MEANDERING JUST INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR PLAYA DEL CARMEN. THE EYE HAS COMPLETELY FILLED
(ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A RELATIVE WARM SPOT NOTED IN INFRARED
IMAGERY) AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
REMAINING COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND UP
TO 300 NM NE QUADRANT EXTENDING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS W CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN A
BAND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 83W-85W. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM CANCUN STILL SHOWS A CLEARLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND TWO RINGS OF STRONG CONVECTION (AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS). WILMA'S SLOW MOTION HAS GENERATED SOME HIGH
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ISLA MUJERES...JUST OFFSHORE FROM
CANCUN...HAS REPORTED ALMOST 35" OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 1 1/2
DAYS...AND AT ONE POINT REPORTED 4" OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR BETWEEN
2 AND 3 AM EDT. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN A SLOW NWD MOVEMENT
LATER TODAY AND SHOULD RE-EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS
EVENING...THEN HEAD NE TOWARDS FLORIDA BY MON.

EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 20N MOVING W 15
KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 15N66W...OR ABOUT 185
NM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE LOW WAS ANALYZED BASED ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY ON FRI...ALTHOUGH EVEN SHORTWAVE
INFRARED IMAGERY NOW SHOWS AN IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
64W-69W...PARTLY SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NWWD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND WILL SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER THE ISLAND BEGINNING
LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED BENEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS...WHICH HAS MADE ITS SIGNATURE A LITTLE LESS DEFINED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
MAINLY NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 37W-45W.

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR WAVE/LOW ALONG 66W.

WEST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W S OF 18N MOVING W
15 KT. THE WAVE HAS NO SIGNATURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD
AND IS PRIMARILY TRACKED BY A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG OVER NRN COLOMBIA FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN
71W-76W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N10W 6N19W 10N34W 4N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 9W-16W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 24W-35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 33W-39W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N49W 14N60W...SOME OF
WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS BARBADOS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE WILMA HAS STALLED ALONG THE MAYAN RIVIERA JUST SOUTH
OF CANCUN MEXICO BUT CONTINUES TO FLING SPIRAL BANDS OF
CONVECTION NWD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SE GULF. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE CORE OF THE STORM BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTEND FROM 21N-25N E OF 88W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS EXTENDS N AND
E OF WILMA ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE GULF AND MOST OF FLORIDA...
WHILE THE W HALF OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CNTRL MEXICO NEAR
20N102W. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE NW GULF COAST AND
EXTENDS FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA SW TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. WILMA WILL
ONLY INCH NWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND MON.

CARIBBEAN...
THE WEATHER OF MOST INTEREST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE WILMA AND THE AREA OF LOW PRES S OF PUERTO RICO.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DISCUSSION ON BOTH. A LARGE UPPER HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W AND IS HELPING TO REINFORCE
BROAD EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO SWWD ACROSS
NRN COLOMBIA AND IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE AMAZON
BASIN IS BEING ADVECTED NWD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN...PARTLY THE SOURCE FOR THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRES S OF PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC...
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DROP SWD INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL AREAS OF THE ATLC BASIN WITH A FAIRLY HEALTHY 90-110
KT UPPER LEVEL JET READY TO MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS FROM WILMA IS
BEING BROUGHT OVER THE W ATLC ALONG AND TO THE S OF THE
JET...REACHING AS FAR E AS 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
LIE E OF FLORIDA N OF 26N BETWEEN 70W-80W WITHIN THIS MOISTURE
PLUME. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 31N57W 24N58W AND IS
INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N68W 31N53W TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 44W-58W. THE
LARGE UPPER HIGH WHICH HAD BEEN LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL ATLC HAS
BEGUN TO BREAK DOWN AND NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS A SHARP RIDGE
ALONG 23N57W 29N44W. AN E/W ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WWD TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 16N40W THEN NW
TO 19N50W...BOUNDED TO THE S BY A 50 KT JET ALONG 14N. FARTHER
E...A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS MOVING EWD TOWARDS PORTUGAL/SPAIN
AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO MADEIRA ISLAND AND
THE WESTERNMOST CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
BERG



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