[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 221105
HLSMFL
FLZ063-066-069-070-075-GMZ656-657-676-221600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
704 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...HEADLINE...
...COLLIER COUNTY MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER TO BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM SUNDAY FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 north AND LONGITUDE
87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. THE HURRICANE IS
NEARLY STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A NORTHWARD DRIFT LATER TODAY. A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO
ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION
SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF
WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THIS STAGE...RESIDENTS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ARE SIMPLY ADVISED TO REMAIN TUNED TO THE LATEST INFORMATION
COMING OUT OF YOUR LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND
RESTOCK ON PROVISIONS SUCH AS...

     BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS
     DRINKING WATER
     CANNED OR DRIED FOOD
     FIRST AID SUPPLIES
     PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE
     CASH...BECAUSE CREDIT CARDS AND ATM'S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER
     FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.

WHEN HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...THAT WILL BE THE TIME TO
FINISH PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE
SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE STORM.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE
WIND IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...AND AFTER FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 50 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM
28 TO 36 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL
EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH...IS FROM 11 TO 16
PERCENT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE
MARINE IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING
PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION ON WHAT THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE
PROVIDED IN FURTHER UPDATES.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
MUCH POTENTIAL TO BE PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING
WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13
TORNADOES ON A SIMILAR PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON STORM STRUCTURE AND TRACK AS IT APPROACHES THE PENINSULA. IF WILMA
ENDS UP DIRECTLY IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA...MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THIS
THREAT WILL BE PROVIDED ONCE RAIN BANDS BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON TODAY.

$$

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