[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0532 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N 87.2W...OR
ABOUT 20 NM SW OF CANCUN MEXICO...AT 22/0600 UTC MEANDERING
ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WILMA MADE A
SECOND LANDFALL AROUND 11 PM EDT NEAR PLAYA DEL CARMEN MEXICO
AND SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS FILLED WITH THE DIAMETER SHRINKING
FROM 20 NM TO AN IRREGULAR 5-10 NM. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGE FROM
CANCUN WAS AT 1 AM EDT AND SHOWED AN INTENSE BAND OF CONVECTION
AND STRONG WINDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL THEN
CURLING AROUND THE EYE AND INLAND ACROSS CANCUN AND VALLADOLID.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S
SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM NE QUADRANT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT CHETUMAL
NWD INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ALSO EXTEND ACROSS W CUBA AND NWD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF WILMA HAS RESULTED IN A
PROFUSE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST...AND AN
AUTOMATED STATION ON ISLA MUJERES...JUST E OF CANCUN...HAS
REPORTED ABOUT 16" OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. WILMA IS
EXPECTED TO DAWDLE OVER THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS AND WILL THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NE CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA
MOST LIKELY ON MON.

EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 20N MOVING W 15
KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 15N65W...OR ABOUT 225
NM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE LOW WAS ANALYZED BASED ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY ON FRI...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
A SENSE OF SOME ROTATION OBSERVED IN INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE
INFRARED IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N
BETWEEN 62W-68W SPREADING N TOWARDS PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE ALSO EXTENDS ALONG THE CHAIN OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS SWD TO THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO...OR
FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 59W-63W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS IF THE CONVECTION CAN
CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NWWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND WILL
SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER THE ISLAND BEGINNING LATER TODAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUN NIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE 38W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED BENEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS...WHICH HAS MADE ITS SIGNATURE A LITTLE LESS DEFINED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
MAINLY NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 33W-46W.

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR WAVE ALONG 65W.

WEST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W S OF 18N MOVING W
15 KT. THE WAVE HAS NO SIGNATURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD
AND IS PRIMARILY TRACKED BY A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG OVER NRN COLOMBIA FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN
72W-77W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N10W 7N20W 7N30W 10N38W 8N45W 10N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 8W-19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 23W-33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 33W-46W...PARTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 51W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE WILMA HAS STALLED ALONG THE MAYAN RIVIERA JUST SOUTH
OF CANCUN MEXICO BUT CONTINUES TO FLING SPIRAL BANDS OF
CONVECTION NWD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SE GULF. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE CORE OF THE STORM BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTEND FROM 22N-27N E OF 87W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS EXTENDS N AND
E OF WILMA ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE GULF AND MOST OF FLORIDA...
WHILE THE W HALF OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CNTRL MEXICO NEAR
20N100W. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE NW GULF COAST AND
EXTENDS FROM BILOXI MISSISSIPPI SW TO BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. WILMA WILL ONLY INCH NWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND MON.

CARIBBEAN...
THE WEATHER OF MOST INTEREST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE WILMA AND THE AREA OF LOW PRES S OF PUERTO RICO.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DISCUSSION ON BOTH. A LARGE UPPER HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER E/CNTRL CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND IS HELPING TO
REINFORCE BROAD EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ARUBA SWWD ACROSS
LAKE MARACAIBO INTO NRN COLOMBIA AND IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE AMAZON BASIN IS BEING ADVECTED NWD BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...PARTLY THE SOURCE FOR THE
CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC...
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DROP SWD INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL AREAS OF THE ATLC BASIN WITH A FAIRLY HEALTHY 90-110
KT UPPER LEVEL JET READY TO MOVE EWD OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS FROM WILMA IS
BEING BROUGHT OVER THE W ATLC ALONG AND TO THE S OF THE
JET...REACHING AS FAR E AS 67W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
LIE E OF FLORIDA FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 73W-80W WITHIN THIS
MOISTURE PLUME. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 31N60W 21N63W AND
IS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N66W 30N56W TO
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 47W-60W. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH WHICH HAD BEEN LOCATED
OVER THE CNTRL ATLC HAS BEGUN TO BREAK DOWN AND NOW ALL THAT IS
LEFT IS A SHARP RIDGE ALONG 24N59W 30N40W. AN E/W ORIENTED UPPER
TROUGH LIES FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WWD TO A WEAK UPPER LOW
NEAR 16N40W THEN NW TO 20N50W...BOUNDED TO THE S BY A 50 KT JET
ALONG 14N. FARTHER E...A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS MOVING EWD
TOWARDS PORTUGAL/SPAIN AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S
TO MADEIRA ISLAND AND THE WESTERNMOST CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
BERG


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