[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211813 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

CORRECTION FOR THE TIME OF HURRICANE WILMA'S POSITION
TO 21/1800 UTC AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TIME TO 1745 UTC.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILMA IS NEAR 20.4N 86.7W
AT 21/1800Z...MOVING NORTHWEST 3 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT
13 NM/25 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE EASTERN COAST AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE BEEN BATTERED BY THE FORCE OF
HURRICANE WILMA SINCE MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES OF -76C TO -78C HAVE BEEN FOUND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF WILMA WITHIN 50 TO 90 NM OF THE CENTER EAST OF
86W...AND WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM OF CENTER WEST OF 86W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND WILMA...WITHIN 80 TO
100 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER AND WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. ONE BAND OF RAINSHOWERS IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. DENSE MULTILAYERED OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-AND EAST OF
30N82W 26N90W 20N91W. LINES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF WILMA ARE SPIRALLING IN A CYCLONIC SENSE TOWARD
THE WILMA'S CENTER AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EYE IS SEEN
QUITE EASILY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST WEST OF
THE ISLANDS FROM 12N...JUST CLIPPING GRENADA...TO 15N BETWEEN
61W AND 65W. OTHER CLUSTERS AND CELLS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND ISLANDS FROM 15N NORTH TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS LOW CENTER FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 65W AND
74W. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A
SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION
CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. IT BARELY SHOWS UP IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W IN THE ITCZ.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE MOST PRONOUNCED PART OF THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO WHICH HAS
SPLIT OFF FROM THE MAIN AXIS. IT IS ALONG 20N69W 24N66W 26N61W
MOVING NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN BROAD
SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE WILMA
AND THUS IT DOES NOT HAVE A DISTINGUISHABLE SIGNATURE. LINES OF
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING WEST OF 78W...WITH SOME SHOWERS
DYING AND OTHER ONES REPLACING THEM. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO WILMA THAN TO THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N11W 10N34W 10N38W 9N44W 10N50W 13N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 TO 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 40W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AWAY FROM HURRICANE WILMA...
LINES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF WILMA
ARE SPIRALING IN A CYCLONIC SENSE TOWARD THE WILMA'S CENTER AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DENSE MULTILAYERED OVERCAST CLOUDINESS
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-AND EAST OF 30N82W
26N90W 20N91W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF THIS
30N82W 20N91W LINE. THIS DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN CENTRAL MEXICO. ALL THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING WILMA WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
TODAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST PLACES THE
EYE OF WILMA SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING ON MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH CURRENTLY IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO WESTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS/
MEXICO BORDER BETWEEN LAREDO AND EAGLE PASS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AWAY FROM HURRICANE WILMA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W/71W IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF AN ALREADY-
EXISTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS
LOW CENTER FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE 62W TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH MAY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AWAY FROM HURRICANE WILMA
COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 65W...AND IT SPILLS INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THE 70W/71W
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING. A GRADUAL SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 26N62W 29N54W BEYOND 32N47W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RUNS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N57W TO 11N59W AND THEN TO 16N59W. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STREAM INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 59W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N40W...SURROUNDED BY MUCH MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. A SURFACE 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 30N37W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE
COLD FRONT REACHES 31N32W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS DIGGING TOWARD MOROCCO.

$$
MT


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