[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILMA IS NEAR
18.9N 85.7W AT 20/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 135 NM/220 KM SOUTHEAST OF
COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING NORTHWEST 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 918 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE NEAR 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.   RESIDENTS
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
SHOULD FINISH HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PUSHES WILMA TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WILMA'S
EYE DIAMETER IS NOW 35 NM.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS AROUND
THE CENTER FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 84W-87W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO HONDURAS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN
82W-88W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 78W-85W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
ITCZ.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 26W-32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 57W
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 55W-59W...
AND FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 59W-62W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE
VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 65W-68W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
73W-78W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 10N30W 8N40W 12N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
20W-26W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 37W-41W...FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
44W-48W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE WILMA IS OVER W CUBA AND THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO AS MENTIONED ABOVE.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD
OUTFLOW N OF THE CENTER IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE SE
GULF...AND FLORIDA...FROM 20N-29N E OF 90W.  THE WESTERN GULF W
OF 90W HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 90W.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS E OF 90W
DUE TO WILMA.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO COVER THE E GULF E OF 92W
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO WILMA .

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE WILMA DOMINATES THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.  NOAA BUOY
42056 NEAR 20N85W IS REPORTING 50 KT WINDS AND 32 FT SEAS DUE TO
WILMA.  FURTHER E...TROPICAL WAVES ARE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER
N COLOMBIA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.  A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N64W.
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N64W.  A WEAK 1016
MB LOW WITH NO CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
28N44W.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 30N38W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...DIFFLUENCE S OF A JET IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 27N-31N
BETWEEN 50W-54W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
28N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM SPAIN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA


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