[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N
83.7W...OR ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL
MEXICO...AT 19/2100 UTC MOVING WNW 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 892 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. WILMA IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
SINCE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
ABOUT 15 NM FROM THE EYE...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXTENDING
UP TO 75 NM OUT AND COILING INWARD TOWARDS THE CENTER.  NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
82W-86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 13N-21N
BETWEEN 81W-88W.  A STRONG BAND IS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL
CUBA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 77W-81W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 12N MOVING W
15 KT. THE WAVE HAS A LOW AMPLITUDE SIGNATURE AND WAS NOT
CAPTURED BY THE UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR BUT WAS SEEN IN THE
DATA FROM BAMAKO AND NIAMEY A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE S. THE AXIS
FOLLOWS A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION 500 NM S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE PLACEMENT IS PARTIALLY BASED ON GFS GUIDANCE.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 16N MOVING W 15
KT. THIS WAVE ALSO HAS A LOW AMPLITUDE SIGNATURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 43W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 23N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N60W.  DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CIRCULATION IS ALSO CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 55W-60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
57W-60W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. UPPER AIR DATA FROM CURACAO DOES INDICATE THAT A WAVE
PASSED THE ISLAND WITHIN THE PAST 24 HRS BUT OTHER THAN THAT
THERE IS NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE OR RELATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 5N30W 5N40W 12N60W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 17W-21W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 27W-31W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO
APPROACHING HURRICANE WILMA.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA
ALONG 27N80W 26N84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30
NM OF THE TROUGH.  ANOTHER LINE OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS NOTED ON THE MIAMI RADAR APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SOUTH ALONG 25N80W 24N82W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH NE-E 10-15 KT FLOW DUE TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1017 MB HIGH OVER ALABAMA NEAR
32N88W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SE CORNER.
EXPECT WILMA TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FORT MYERS FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DISCUSSION ON WILMA. THE BROAD OUTFLOW
CANOPY OF WILMA SPREADS AWAY FROM THE STORM NEWD INTO THE W
ATLC...SEWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE W/CNTRL CARIBBEAN...AND SWWD
ACROSS CNTRL AMERICA. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA CONTINUES
TO EXPAND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER AND THE OUTERMOST SPIRAL BANDS
EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. FARTHER E...DRIER AIR HAS INFILTRATED INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN TO ABOUT 70W PRODUCING FAIR SKIES OVER THE AREA WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED E OF THE ISLANDS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT OR THU.

WEST ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SLIDING ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC
ALONG 32N76W 27N80W WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA NEWD TO 32N60W AND 200 MB WINDS APPROACHING 100
KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BENEATH THE JET FROM NEAR FT.
LAUDERDALE FLORIDA EWD TO 26N70W 30N58W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE FORMED WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN
58W-73W.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 18N60W.  DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING  SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 55W-60W.  A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE SUBTROPICS NEAR 29N40W AND IS SUPPORTING BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...CENTERED NEAR 32N37W WITH A PRESSURE
OF 1023 MB. A WEAKENING 1017 MB LOW NEAR 27N44W IS MOVING NW 5
KT BUT IS CAUSING NO DEEP CONVECTION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DISSIPATING. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING TOWARDS THE MOROCCAN COAST
NEAR 34N10W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N25W. A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDS W OF THIS LOW TO 20N40W WITH A BAND OF 50 KT UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES EXTENDING ALONG 15N. WIDESPREAD SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC FROM 7N-24N E OF 59W.

$$
FORMOSA


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