[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 82.2W...OR 150 NM SSW OF
GRAND CAYMAN...AT 19/0600 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT WHICH AN
INCREASE OF 35 KNOTS IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 901 MB WITH A DROP IN PRESSURE OF 44 MB IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
WILMA WENT FROM A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE TO A STRONG
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THE LAST 6 HOURS MAKING IT THE THE 6
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 75/90 NM IN THE REMAINING QUADRANTS WITH A PINHOLE EYE
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS
NW OF THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED WITH OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO
SPREAD OVER THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12.5N-18.5N BETWEEN 80W-84W.
SPIRAL BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FOUND
FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 74W-88W. AS THE HEAVY RAINS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA SO
DOES THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THESE
ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT.
THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 38W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 55W S OF 22N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. STRONG WAVE WITH A BROAD CURVATURE AND
SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS ROTATING ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE
AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-22N
BETWEEN 51W-56W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE HAS BECOME ENTRAINED INTO HURRICANE WILMA AND
HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS.

SW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 12N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOVING W S OF HURRICANE WILMA...CAUSING IT TO
LACK MUCH IF ANY SIGNATURE. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 5N31W 7N50W 8N56W 7N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7.5N BETWEEN
17W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF AXIS FROM
25W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC OVER THE E
UNITED STATES DIPPING S OVER FLORIDA TO 26N. THE LARGE AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR CABO ROJO MEXICO WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE SE U.S. AND GULF. RIDGE FROM THIS UPPER
HIGH NOW EXTENDS N ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AIDING THE
UPPER TROUGH TO DIP S OVER FLORIDA. NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS N
GULF COAST. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY AND ONLY A SLOW INCREASE
IN MOISTURE S TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS SUCH...SKIES ARE
CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH A FEW BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE COAST
OF S MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO OVER S FLORIDA AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
W ATLC OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS S FLORIDA ALONG 25NE OF
84W. THIS TROUGH IS PRECEDING THE MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA.

CARIBBEAN...
WILMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHENED TONIGHT AND THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED COVERS THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN W OF 74W. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA EXTENDS A RIDGE NE ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. SUBSEQUENT S
FLOW FLOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
THE THE E ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA E OF 74W.

WEST ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC W ACROSS THE E
UNITED STATES. SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH FROM 26N72W NE OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N57W. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM HURRICANE WILMA COVERS THE AREA S
OF 26N E OF 60W AND WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET N OF
26N. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 30N66W SW TO 25N74W THEN W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA
ALONG 25N TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
120 NM OF LIEN FROM OVER CUBA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 23N82W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS ALONG 26N66W TO BEYOND
32N55W AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 24N63W WSW TO CUBA NEAR 21N
76W INCLUDING THE S BAHAMAS ISLANDS TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WEAKENING ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL CENTERED JUST NE OF
THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N59W BUT IT NO LONGER HAS ENOUGH
DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANCHORED NEAR 28N38W COVERING THE AREA N OF
19N FROM 28W-52W. FARTHER E...A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NE
INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND
TO A SECOND DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER MOROCCO NEAR 30N8W 21N18W
TO JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N27W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE TROPICS ALONG 7N/8N WITH A TROPICAL JET
ALONG 15N E OF 40W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. AN AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST IS EMBEDDED IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES JUST N OF THE JET
FROM 16N-23N E OF 50W. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W WITH A 1024 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 30N35W.

$$
WALLACE


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