[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR IS NEAR 17.7N
79.7W AT 17/0000 UTC OR 150 MILES SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MOVING WNW
2 KT.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT
WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  BANDS
OF CONVECTION ARE MOSTLY FORMING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS POSSIBLY
LIMITING TSTMS IN THE NORTHERN HALF.  WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SRN SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED
BANDS OF CONVECTION WELL E OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN
HAITI AND JAMAICA.  THE DEPRESSION IS SLOWLY DEEPENING AS THE
PRESSURE IS DOWN ABOUT 3 MB FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  LOW WIND
SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER IS IN ITS PATH SO INTENSIFICATION IS
LIKELY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1008 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 14N.  THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE A
TILT FROM NE TO SW AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ON THE S SIDE OF THE
WAVE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 42W-49W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20
KT.  THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS IT ENTERS
THE SLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF TD 24.
SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NW VENEZUELA COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TSTMS FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD TO 15N
BETWEEN 70W-73W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 9N30W 13N42W 11N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 23W-40W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8.5N-13N BETWEEN 52W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE GULF COAST GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
S OF 27N AS N TO NE WINDS GRADUALLY PICK UP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF A PAIR OF
WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS... ONE FROM THE W TIP OF CUBA TO 26N89W
AND THE OTHER FROM THE SOUTHERN POINT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
24N98W. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS... A HIGH NEAR 23N91W DOMINATES
WITH DRY AIR ALOFT.  HOWEVER BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS INTO EXTREME SW FLORIDA. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED S OF JACKSONVILLE TO NEAR PANAMA CITY TO JUST S OF MOBILE
WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT LITTLE TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST.  MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IN THE GULF STATES WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCE FOR S
FLORIDA BY WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEVELOPING TD 24 IS THE BIG STORY W OF 70W.  UPPER HIGH IS
ALMOST OVERHEAD WITH RIDGING ENE BEYOND HISPANIOLA.  HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN AS AN INFLOW BAND ON THE E SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM LIES FROM HISPANIOLA WESTWARD.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER
JAMAICA AND E CUBA.  THIS BAND WILL PROBABLY SHIFT WESTWARD FROM
NEAR HAITI TOMORROW THEN OVER E CUBA/JAMAICA BY TUE AS THE
DEPRESSION MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.  IN ADDITION THE GFS FORECASTS
HEAVIER RAIN TO BEGIN IN HONDURAS ON TUE.  FOR NOW...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE S OF THE DEPRESSION IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 75W-82W.  AN UPPER TROUGH LIES JUST E OF THE
CARIBBEAN FROM 22N61W TO 11N59W WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES.  A SURGE IN MOISTURE SHOULD HIT THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH
AIDING THE TSTMS... POSSIBLY BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER PATTERN IS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO A FALL-LIKE REGIME
WITH GENERALLY MORE DEPTH TO MID-LATITUDE FEATURES.  A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH LIES OVER THE W ATLC FROM 31N62W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH...MUCH DRIER
ALOFT AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IN A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH N OF
26N W OF 62W.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM
21N-25N BETWEEN 72W-79W AROUND THE W PORTION OF THE TROUGH.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING TSTMS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM
19N-24N BETWEEN 61W-68W.  THIS DIFFLUENCE IS BETWEEN THE BROAD
TROUGH IN THE NW ATLC AND A TROUGH JUST E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LIFT FROM THE
TROUGH IS CAUSING SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ITCZ.  FARTHER NE... MID/UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 29N50W WITH
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.  DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM JUST W
OF MADEIRA ISLAND TO 19N35W.  ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
ENTERED THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS EXTEND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
21N26W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS.  GENERAL WLY FLOW ALOFT CONTROLS
THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE.

$$
BLAKE

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