[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR IS NEAR 17.1N
79.3W AT 16/1500 UTC OR 195 NM/315 KM SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISOR UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. THERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH
HINTS OF A LITTLE MORE BANDING. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW SHEAR AND
GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND THERE IS A DEEP SUPPLY OF WARM
WATER IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
BETTER ASSESS THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SW OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
79W-82W.  A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 73W-78W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 16N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

AN EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 66W-70W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 12N40W 12N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 28W-34W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
50W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING LIGHT NE FLOW OVER THE GULF.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE SAME AREAS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR IS THE DOMINATE SYSTEM IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.  THE RAIN BAND E OF
THE CENTER IS IMPRESSIVE WITH WINDS 15-20 KT FROM THE SOUTH
MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTER.  THE SMALLER RAIN BAND W OF THE
CENTER HAS WINDS 15-20 KT FROM THE NORTH.  FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE CENTER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 20N58W.  NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W OF
70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 40W...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ALONG 25N70W 24N82W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE TROUGH.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 65W-68W...AND FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
62W-64W.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N37W.
FURTHER S... A 1010 MB LOW IS NEAR 21N35W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 28W-36W.  FURTHER
E... THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
AND THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N14W 28N16W 25N26W.  CONVECTION
IS OBSCURED OVER THE FRONT BECAUSE OF OVERHEAD HIGH CLOUDINESS
FROM A 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL JET.

$$
FORMOSA

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