[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160619
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR IS NEAR 17.0N
79.0W AT 16/0300 UTC OR 190 NM /345 KM SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN
AND ABOUT 110 NM/205 KM SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHWEST 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
GOING AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THIS DEPRESSION CURVES
NORTHEASTWARD...NOW REACHING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
24N75W...AND THEN CURVING TOWARD PUERTO RICO. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXACTLY RIGHT ON TOP OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
ONE BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND FROM 16N TO 21N AT THE COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION IS FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE FOUND JUST SOUTH OF THESE TWO AREAS FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 76W AND 84W AT THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS AS THE DEPRESSION DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD
AND STRENGTHENS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR
15N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N32W
18N36W.

AN EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE FINALLY IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHICH
HAS BEEN EXISTING FOR THE DAY OR SO. IT IS NOT EASY TO ATTRIBUTE
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXACTLY TO THIS WAVE ALONE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N13W 7N20W 9N30W 10N38W...13N41W 11N46W 12N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO
10N BETWEEN 18W AND 36W...AND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN THE GULF WATERS.
A 1008 MB SOUTHERN FLORIDA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
25N80W...HAVING HELPED TO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING MUCH OF YESTERDAY. A TROUGH RUNS FROM
THIS LOW CENTER TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N81W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
23N88W WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERING THE ENTIRE
AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR HAS FORMED FROM THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WAS NEAR JAMAICA FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS
OR SO. IT IS FORECAST TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LIES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM BELIZE
TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY
BRINGING IN DRY AIR AS FAR SE AS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE DEPRESSION AND IS
EXPANDING CIRRUS OUTFLOW EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH
COVER THE AREA EAST OF 67W. THE MAIN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER WITH THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA NOW NEAR 19N61W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MADE IT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
CONTINUES IN PLACE WEST OF 32N61W 27N65W 22N69W...AND BORDERED
TO THE SOUTH BY THE DEPRESSION'S OUTFLOW. SURFACE TROUGHS AND
A COLD FRONT ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 55W. THE FIRST
TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR DAYS...THROUGH
32N55W TO 27N60W TO 24N67W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N60W TO
27N68W. A SECOND TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N67W TO
29N70W TO 28N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE 19N61W
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND THE DRY AIR AS FAR NORTH
AS 27N58W AND AS FAR SOUTH AS 20N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS IMMEDIATELY NORTH-THROUGH-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE 19N61W LOW CENTER...NORTH OF 23N40W 27N53W 28N60W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 40W...
THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH HAS SPENT THE LAST FEW
DAYS DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
REACHES 17N36W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 21N32W 18N36W. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM JUST
EAST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N15W TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N20W TO 27N24W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 25N30W. A TROUGH TRAILS THE LOW CENTER TO 19N38W.

$$
MT


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